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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Iceland v Luxembourg: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe

Iceland

DWWDL
Mon 16 Nov 2026

Luxembourg

LLLWW
Iceland 63%Draw 19%Luxembourg 18% Expected goals 1.69 – 0.70
82%
Betarazi pick

Iceland or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22

9/10Rating
–Odds

Picks by market

ResultIceland to win63% · fair 1.59
Double chanceIceland or draw82% · fair 1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score55% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015% · fair 6.48

Iceland vs Luxembourg: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Luxembourg travel to face Iceland on Monday 16 November in the UEFA Nations League – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Iceland are 1st on 8 points after 4 matches; Luxembourg are 4th with 3.

Current form

Iceland, last 5: DWWDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Estonia, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Luxembourg, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Bulgaria, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Head to head

When they last met (29 Sep 2026) it ended Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Iceland 1.7 xG, Luxembourg 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 45%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Iceland 63%, draw 19%, Luxembourg 18%.

Betarazi verdict

We are going with Iceland or draw (82%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Iceland 1–0 Luxembourg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Iceland63%fair 1.59
Draw19%fair 5.27
Luxembourg18%fair 5.48
2.39Expected goals
1.69Iceland xG
0.70Luxembourg xG
45%Both score
43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%

From our goals model: Iceland 1.7 – 0.7 Luxembourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

IcelandLuxembourg
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average+29%-14%
Goals conceded vs average-31%+17%
Our expected goals here1.850.74

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultIceland to win63%1.59–
Double chanceIceland or draw82%1.22–
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score55%1.80–
Draw no betIceland (draw no bet)77%1.29–
Asian handicapIceland -0.5 (Asian handicap)61%1.64–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals69%1.45–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals57%1.75–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals78%1.28–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals91%1.10–
First team to scoreIceland to score first64%1.56–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time43%2.30–
Half-time / full-timeHT Iceland / FT Iceland38%2.65–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015%6.48–

Recent results

Iceland – last 6

DWWDLL
6 Oct@ Estonia0–0D
3 Octvs Bulgaria3–0W
29 Sep@ Luxembourg3–0W
26 Sepvs Estonia1–1D
10 Jun@ Argentina0–3L
31 May@ Japan0–1L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Luxembourg – last 6

LLLWWL
6 Octvs Bulgaria0–2L
3 Oct@ Estonia0–1L
29 Sepvs Iceland0–3L
26 Sep@ Bulgaria2–1W
6 Jun@ Albania1–0W
3 Junvs Italy0–1L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

29 Sep 2026Luxembourg v Iceland0–3
Iceland vs Luxembourg head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Iceland4220+68
2Estonia4130+16
3Bulgaria4112-24
4Luxembourg4103-53

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Germany Netherlands 148%1.80X25%4.12227%3.49 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 67%@1.56
Greece Serbia 163%1.34X22%4.98215%7.34 1.8–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 68%@1.45
Switzerland Scotland 164%1.41X21%4.37215%6.87 1.8–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.27
FYR Macedonia Slovenia 113%6.33X23%3.86264%1.50 0.6–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 68%@1.33

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Iceland vs Luxembourg?

Our pick is Iceland or draw with a 82% chance.

Who will win Iceland vs Luxembourg?

On our numbers Iceland have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Luxembourg 18%.

How many goals will there be in Iceland vs Luxembourg?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Iceland vs Luxembourg?

Our predicted score is Iceland 1–0 Luxembourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Iceland vs Luxembourg?

Iceland vs Luxembourg (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.