Ethiopia vs Malawi: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Saturday 6 June: Ethiopia v Malawi in the Friendlies.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ethiopia 0.9 xG, Malawi 0.7 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 70%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ethiopia 43%, draw 24%, Malawi 33%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.50 – longer than our fair 1.43, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ethiopia 0–0 Malawi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ethiopia43%fair 2.34 · @2.45
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.00
Malawi33%fair 3.02 · @2.85
1.60Expected goals
0.89Ethiopia xG
0.72Malawi xG
50%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–020%
1–018%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Ethiopia 0.9 – 0.7 Malawi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ethiopia to win✓
43%
2.34
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
2.00
Draw no bet
Ethiopia (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Malawi +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.50 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
First team to score
Ethiopia to score first✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
56%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
27%
3.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
6%
17.65
–
Recent results
Ethiopia – last 2
WW
31 Mar
vs Sao Tome and Principe
1–0
W
27 Mar
@ Sao Tome and Principe
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Malawi
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ethiopia and Malawi.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ethiopia vs Malawi?
On our numbers Ethiopia have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Malawi 33%.
How many goals will there be in Ethiopia vs Malawi?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ethiopia vs Malawi?
Our predicted score is Ethiopia 0–0 Malawi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Ethiopia vs Malawi?
Ethiopia vs Malawi (Friendlies) kicks off on Saturday 6 June 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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