Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 58% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultEquatorial Guinea to win ✓56% · @1.91
Double chanceEquatorial Guinea or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @2.10
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.52
Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 28 September the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification brings Equatorial Guinea against Sierra Leone at Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Equatorial Guinea are 2nd on 8 points after 6 matches; Sierra Leone are 3rd with 5. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Equatorial Guinea, last 3: LLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Congo DR, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Sierra Leone, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Zimbabwe, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Sierra Leone, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Equatorial Guinea.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Equatorial Guinea 2.2 xG, Sierra Leone 1.3 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Equatorial Guinea 56%, draw 24%, Sierra Leone 20%.
Lower-risk option: Equatorial Guinea or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Equatorial Guinea or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Equatorial Guinea 2–1 Sierra Leone. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Equatorial Guinea56%fair 1.78 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @2.90
Sierra Leone20%fair 5.01 · @4.00
3.50Expected goals
2.21Equatorial Guinea xG
1.29Sierra Leone xG
58%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–07%
3–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Equatorial Guinea 2.2 – 1.3 Sierra Leone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Equatorial Guinea to win✓
56%
1.78
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Equatorial Guinea or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Equatorial Guinea (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Sierra Leone +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
First team to score
Equatorial Guinea to score first✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Equatorial Guinea ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Equatorial Guinea / FT Equatorial Guinea✓
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.52
–
Recent results
Equatorial Guinea – last 3
LLD
24 Sep
@ Congo DR
0–2
L
8 Jun
vs Comoros
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Madagascar
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Sierra Leone – last 3
LLW
24 Sep
vs Zimbabwe
2–3
L
9 Jun
@ Liberia
1–3
L
6 Jun
vs Liberia
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone.
What is the prediction for Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
Our pick is Equatorial Guinea or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
On our numbers Equatorial Guinea have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sierra Leone 20%.
How many goals will there be in Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
Our predicted score is Equatorial Guinea 2–1 Sierra Leone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Central African Republic0
Burkina Faso1
Zimbabwe1
Congo DR2
Botswana2
Tunisia2