Morecambe v AFC Fylde Prediction & Expected Goals (28 Jul) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAFC Fylde to win ✗42% · @2.25

Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.44

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.72

Morecambe vs AFC Fylde: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Morecambe welcome AFC Fylde for a Friendlies Clubs fixture on Tuesday 28 July (19:00 WAT).

Current form

Morecambe, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Bamber Bridge, away. 3.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

AFC Fylde, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Wigan, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Morecambe 1.6 xG, AFC Fylde 1.7 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 64% and GG at 65%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Morecambe 36%, draw 23%, AFC Fylde 42%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.44.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Morecambe 1–1 AFC Fylde. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Morecambe36%fair 2.79 · @2.50

Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.75

AFC Fylde42%fair 2.41 · @2.25

3.31Expected goals

1.60Morecambe xG

1.70AFC Fylde xG

65%Both score

64%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%

1–29%

2–18%

2–27%

0–16%

1–06%

From our goals model: Morecambe 1.6 – 1.7 AFC Fylde expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	Morecambe	AFC Fylde
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average	-8%	-4%
Goals conceded vs average	-16%	+1%
Our expected goals here	1.55	1.61

Morecambe

AFC Fylde

Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average

-8%

-4%

Goals conceded vs average

-16%

+1%

Our expected goals here

1.55

1.61

Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	AFC Fylde to win ✗	42%	2.41	2.25
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	77%	1.29	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	65%	1.55	1.44
Draw no bet	AFC Fylde (draw no bet)	54%	1.86	–
Asian handicap	Morecambe +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	74%	1.35	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	84%	1.19	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	64%	1.56	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	58%	1.73	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	76%	1.31	–
First team to score	AFC Fylde to score first	50%	2.01	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	37%	2.67	–
Half-time / full-time	HT AFC Fylde / FT AFC Fylde ✗	24%	4.09	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	11.72	–

Market

Most likely

Chance

Fair odds

Bookmaker

Match result

AFC Fylde to win ✗

42%

2.41

2.25

Double chance

Either team to win ✗

77%

1.29

1.25

Both teams to score

Both teams to score ✓

65%

1.55

1.44

Draw no bet

AFC Fylde (draw no bet)

54%

1.86

–

Asian handicap

Morecambe +1 (Asian handicap) ✓

74%

1.35

–

Over/under 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals ✓

84%

1.19

–

Over/under 2.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals ✗

64%

1.56

–

Over/under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals ✓

58%

1.73

–

Over/under 4.5 goals

Under 4.5 goals ✓

76%

1.31

–

First team to score

AFC Fylde to score first

50%

2.01

–

Half-time result

Level at half-time ✓

37%

2.67

–

Half-time / full-time

HT AFC Fylde / FT AFC Fylde ✗

24%

4.09

–

Correct score

Correct score 1–2 ✗

11.72

–

18 Jul	@ Bamber Bridge	3–0	W
6 Apr	vs Carlisle	2–2	D
3 Apr	@ Rochdale	4–2	W
25 Mar	vs Hartlepool	2–3	L
3 Mar	@ Wealdstone	3–2	W
25 Feb	@ Gateshead	4–4	D

25 Jul	vs Wigan	0–3	L
21 Jul	@ Longridge Town	3–0	W
18 Jul	@ Huddersfield	2–1	W
14 Jul	@ Hyde United	3–1	W
11 Jul	vs Blackpool	2–3	L
6 Apr	vs Radcliffe	4–3	W

Morecambe v AFC Fylde: numbers & prediction