Atletico Grau v Alianza Atletico Prediction & Expected Goals (13 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAtletico Grau to win ✓40% · @2.25

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.55

Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

21:15 WAT, Sunday 13 September: Atletico Grau v Alianza Atletico in the Primera División, played at Ambrosio Maco Arroyo. In the table, Atletico Grau are 11th, lower half, on 21 points after 16 matches; Alianza Atletico are 7th (upper half) with 28.

Current form

Atletico Grau, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Deportivo Garcilaso, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Alianza Atletico, last 5: WWDWD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over UTC Cajamarca, at home. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.

Momentum favours Alianza Atletico, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for Atletico Grau.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Grau 1.2 xG, Alianza Atletico 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 55%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Grau 40%, draw 23%, Alianza Atletico 36%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Alianza Atletico to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 36%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Grau 1–1 Alianza Atletico. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Atletico Grau40%fair 2.48 · @2.25

Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.10

Alianza Atletico36%fair 2.75 · @3.10

2.34Expected goals

1.21Atletico Grau xG

1.13Alianza Atletico xG

55%Both score

41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–012%

0–111%

0–010%

2–18%

1–27%

From our goals model: Atletico Grau 1.2 – 1.1 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Atletico Grau to win ✓	40%	2.48	2.25
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.30	1.33
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	55%	1.81	1.80
Draw no bet	Atletico Grau (draw no bet) ✓	53%	1.90	–
Asian handicap	Alianza Atletico +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	62%	1.61	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	68%	1.47	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	59%	1.71	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	79%	1.26	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	91%	1.10	–
First team to score	Atletico Grau to score first	47%	2.14	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	46%	2.18	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Atletico Grau / FT Atletico Grau ✗	22%	4.63	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.55	–

Atletico Grau – last 6

LWDWWD

6 Sep	@ Deportivo Garcilaso	2–4	L
1 Sep	vs FBC Melgar	1–0	W
26 Aug	vs Sport Boys	2–2	D
21 Aug	@ FC Cajamarca	3–1	W
14 Aug	vs Comerciantes Unidos	1–0	W
8 Aug	@ Juan Pablo II College	0–0	D

1.5Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Alianza Atletico – last 6

WWDWDW

4 Sep	vs UTC Cajamarca	3–2	W
30 Aug	@ UCV Moquegua	4–1	W
25 Aug	vs UTC Cajamarca	1–1	D
21 Aug	vs Sporting Cristal	3–1	W
15 Aug	@ ADT	1–1	D
6 Aug	vs Cienciano	1–0	W

2.2Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

83%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	20	9	4	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	17	10	6	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	16	7	10	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	16	3	14	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	-1	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	13	9	11	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	12	10	11	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	8	13	12	-3	37
14	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	-9	37
15	ADT	33	7	11	15	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	7	9	17	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	5	9	19	-20	19

Team

Pts

+30

+20

+18

+15

+15

-1

-1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

-12

Sport Boys

Juan Pablo II College

-11

-3

-9

-12

-19

-21

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.

Who will win Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?

On our numbers Atletico Grau have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alianza Atletico 36%.

How many goals will there be in Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?

Our predicted score is Atletico Grau 1–1 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?

Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Ambrosio Maco Arroyo.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Atletico Grau v Alianza Atletico: numbers & prediction