FC Cajamarca 65%Draw 22%UCV Moquegua 13%Expected goals 2.04 – 0.82
87%
Betarazi pick
FC Cajamarca or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: FC Cajamarca to win @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFC Cajamarca to win ✗65% · @1.70
Double chanceFC Cajamarca or draw ✗87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
UCV Moquegua travel to face FC Cajamarca on Sunday 18 October in the Primera División, with Estadio Heroes de San Ramon the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, FC Cajamarca are 14th, lower half, on 14 points after 16 matches; UCV Moquegua are 17th (in the drop zone) with 12. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
FC Cajamarca, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with ADT, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
UCV Moquegua, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Cienciano, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours FC Cajamarca, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.0 for UCV Moquegua.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Cajamarca 2.0 xG, UCV Moquegua 0.8 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Cajamarca 65%, draw 22%, UCV Moquegua 13%.
Lower-risk option: FC Cajamarca or draw (87%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: FC Cajamarca to win @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was FC Cajamarca or draw (87%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.15, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Cajamarca 2–0 UCV Moquegua. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Cajamarca65%fair 1.54 · @1.70
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.60
UCV Moquegua13%fair 7.67 · @4.50
2.86Expected goals
2.04FC Cajamarca xG
0.82UCV Moquegua xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: FC Cajamarca 2.0 – 0.8 UCV Moquegua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Cajamarca to win✗
65%
1.54
1.70 ▲
Double chance
FC Cajamarca or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.62
Draw no bet
FC Cajamarca (draw no bet)✗
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
FC Cajamarca -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
FC Cajamarca to score first✗
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
FC Cajamarca ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Cajamarca / FT FC Cajamarca✗
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Recent results
FC Cajamarca – last 6
DLWLWL
10 Oct
@ ADT
0–0
D
19 Sep
vs Cusco
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2–1
W
4 Sep
vs Cienciano
2–5
L
28 Aug
@ Comerciantes Unidos
3–2
W
21 Aug
vs Atletico Grau
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
UCV Moquegua – last 6
LLLLLL
8 Oct
vs Cienciano
0–2
L
20 Sep
@ Juan Pablo II College
0–4
L
13 Sep
vs Sporting Cristal
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Cusco
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Alianza Atletico
1–4
L
27 Aug
@ ADT
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Cajamarca and UCV Moquegua.
What is the prediction for FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
Our pick is FC Cajamarca or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
On our numbers FC Cajamarca have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and UCV Moquegua 13%.
How many goals will there be in FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
Our predicted score is FC Cajamarca 2–0 UCV Moquegua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
