Alianza Lima 76%Draw 15%FC Cajamarca 8%Expected goals 2.48 – 0.67
60%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.57
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 54% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Lima to win76% · @1.17
Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw92% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.25
GoalsOver 1.5 goals83% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.32
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 14 November the Primera División brings Alianza Lima against FC Cajamarca at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. Kick-off: 22:00 WAT. In the table, Alianza Lima are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; FC Cajamarca are 14th (lower half) with 14. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Alianza Lima, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Club Deportivo Los Chankas, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
FC Cajamarca, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Alianza Atletico, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Alianza Lima, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for FC Cajamarca.
Head to head
When they last met (31 May 2026) it ended FC Cajamarca 1–1 Alianza Lima.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Lima 2.5 xG, FC Cajamarca 0.7 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 54% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Lima 76%, draw 15%, FC Cajamarca 8%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 54%.
Betarazi verdict
We are going with Under 3.5 goals (60%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Lima 2–0 FC Cajamarca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Lima76%fair 1.31 · @1.17
Draw15%fair 6.49 · @6.50
FC Cajamarca8%fair 12.10 · @13.00
3.16Expected goals
2.48Alianza Lima xG
0.67FC Cajamarca xG
54%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
3–011%
1–011%
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 2.5 – 0.7 FC Cajamarca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alianza Lima
FC Cajamarca
Attack vs Primera División average
+7%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
+41%
Our expected goals here
2.65
0.68
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and FC Cajamarca 8%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?
Our predicted score is Alianza Lima 2–0 FC Cajamarca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
