Value bet: Napoli to win @ 1.82 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNapoli to win ✓59% · @1.82
Double chanceNapoli or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.82
Genoa vs Napoli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 22 August the Serie A brings Genoa against Napoli at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Genoa are 13th, lower half, on 13 points after 11 matches; Napoli are 10th (upper half) with 15. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Genoa, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Ascoli, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Napoli, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 6–2 win over Aris Thessalonikis, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Genoa 0.7 xG, Napoli 1.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Genoa 17%, draw 24%, Napoli 59%.
Lower-risk option: Napoli or draw (83%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Napoli to win @1.82 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Genoa 0–1 Napoli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Genoa17%fair 5.94 · @4.60
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.30
Napoli59%fair 1.68 · @1.82
2.39Expected goals
0.74Genoa xG
1.65Napoli xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–37%
From our goals model: Genoa 0.7 – 1.7 Napoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli to win✓
59%
1.68
1.82 ▲
Double chance
Napoli or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
2.00
Draw no bet
Napoli (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Genoa +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Napoli to score first✓
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Napoli / FT Napoli✗
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.82
–
Recent results
Genoa – last 6
WLLWDW
16 Aug
vs Ascoli
4–1
W
8 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
0–1
L
4 Aug
@ Bournemouth
1–10
L
1 Aug
@ Leicester
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Vicenza Virtus
2–2
D
19 Jul
vs Trento
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Napoli – last 6
WDWWLW
12 Aug
vs Aris Thessalonikis
6–2
W
8 Aug
vs Celta Vigo
1–1
D
5 Aug
vs Osasuna
2–1
W
26 Jul
vs Carrarese
2–0
W
22 Jul
vs Arezzo
1–3
L
24 May
vs Udinese
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Genoa and Napoli.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Genoa vs Napoli?
On our numbers Genoa have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Napoli 59%.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs Napoli?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Napoli?
Our predicted score is Genoa 0–1 Napoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Genoa vs Napoli?
Genoa vs Napoli (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
