Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Napoli to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNapoli to win ✓62% · @1.75
Double chanceNapoli or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.43
Monza vs Napoli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Monza welcome Napoli to Stadio Brianteo for a Serie A fixture on Wednesday 28 October (20:45 WAT). In the table, Monza are 18th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 11 matches; Napoli are 10th (upper half) with 15.
Current form
Monza, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Torino, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Napoli, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with AS Roma, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monza 1.1 xG, Napoli 2.4 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 64% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monza 14%, draw 24%, Napoli 62%.
Lower-risk option: Napoli or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Napoli to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Napoli or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monza 1–2 Napoli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monza14%fair 7.06 · @4.00
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.70
Napoli62%fair 1.61 · @1.75
3.50Expected goals
1.13Monza xG
2.37Napoli xG
64%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
0–28%
1–18%
1–38%
0–17%
0–37%
From our goals model: Monza 1.1 – 2.4 Napoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli to win✓
62%
1.61
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Napoli or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.65
Draw no bet
Napoli (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Napoli -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
First team to score
Napoli to score first
66%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Napoli ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Napoli / FT Napoli✗
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.43
–
Recent results
Monza – last 6
LWLDWL
23 Oct
@ Torino
2–3
L
19 Oct
vs Cagliari
4–0
W
11 Oct
@ Lazio
1–3
L
3 Oct
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
18 Sep
vs Sassuolo
2–1
W
13 Sep
@ Lecce
2–3
L
2.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Napoli – last 6
DWLLWD
24 Oct
vs AS Roma
3–3
D
20 Oct
vs BodoGlimt
4–3
W
17 Oct
@ Venezia
0–1
L
13 Oct
@ Villarreal
1–3
L
10 Oct
vs Frosinone
3–0
W
20 Sep
@ Fiorentina
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monza and Napoli.
Our pick is Napoli or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
On our numbers Monza have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Napoli 62%.
How many goals will there be in Monza vs Napoli?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monza vs Napoli?
Our predicted score is Monza 1–2 Napoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Monza vs Napoli?
Monza vs Napoli (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Brianteo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
