Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ajax travel to face Sparta Rotterdam on Sunday 25 October in the Eredivisie, with Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel the venue – the ball rolls at 16:45 WAT. In the table, Sparta Rotterdam are 12th, lower half, on 12 points after 12 matches; Ajax are 3rd (among the top four) with 25. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sparta Rotterdam, last 5: WDLLD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Willem II, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.8 conceded per game.
Ajax, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Atalanta, at home. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game.
Momentum favours Ajax, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Sparta Rotterdam.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sparta Rotterdam 1.4 xG, Ajax 2.9 xG – a total near 4.3. That is an open game on paper: 80% for three or more goals, 68% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sparta Rotterdam 14%, draw 20%, Ajax 66%.
GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.44.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (68%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sparta Rotterdam14%fair 7.36 · @5.50
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @4.75
Ajax66%fair 1.51 · @1.44
4.28Expected goals
1.39Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.89Ajax xG
68%Both score
80%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–28%
1–38%
0–26%
1–46%
0–36%
2–26%
From our goals model: Sparta Rotterdam 1.4 – 2.9 Ajax expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✓
66%
1.51
1.44
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.47
1.44
Draw no bet
Ajax (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Ajax -1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
First team to score
Ajax to score first
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✓
47%
2.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
8%
12.45
–
Recent results
Sparta Rotterdam – last 6
WDLLDL
17 Oct
vs Willem II
3–2
W
10 Oct
@ GO Ahead Eagles
3–3
D
19 Sep
vs Heerenveen
0–4
L
13 Sep
@ PSV Eindhoven
1–4
L
4 Sep
vs PEC Zwolle
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Excelsior
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Ajax – last 6
WWLDDW
22 Oct
vs Atalanta
2–0
W
18 Oct
@ Groningen
5–2
W
15 Oct
@ HNK Hajduk Split
1–2
L
10 Oct
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
15 Sep
vs Willem II
5–1
W
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax.
What is the prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
On our numbers Sparta Rotterdam have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Ajax 66%.
How many goals will there be in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our predicted score is Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
