Value bet: Heerenveen to win @ 2.90 – our chance 42% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultHeerenveen to win42% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score69% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals72% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 12.71
Groningen vs Heerenveen: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Saturday 21 November: Groningen v Heerenveen in the Eredivisie, played at Euroborg. In the table, Groningen are 9th, upper half, on 15 points after 12 matches; Heerenveen are 6th (upper half) with 21.
Current form
Groningen, last 5: LLLDL Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to AZ Alkmaar, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Heerenveen, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 5–3 win over Feyenoord, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Heerenveen, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.7 for Groningen.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Groningen 1.8 xG, Heerenveen 2.2 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 72% and GG at 69%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Groningen 37%, draw 21%, Heerenveen 42%.
GG/NG: GG (69%) at 1.40.
Price worth noting: Heerenveen to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 42%.
Betarazi verdict
Our call: Over 2.5 goals (72%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Groningen 1–2 Heerenveen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Groningen37%fair 2.69 · @2.15
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.80
Heerenveen42%fair 2.39 · @2.90
4.00Expected goals
1.84Groningen xG
2.17Heerenveen xG
69%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–28%
1–17%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
2–35%
From our goals model: Groningen 1.8 – 2.2 Heerenveen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Groningen
Heerenveen
Attack vs Eredivisie average
+23%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
+19%
-21%
Our expected goals here
1.83
2.55
Our own ratings from every Eredivisie result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heerenveen to win
42%
2.39
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
69%
1.44
1.40
Draw no bet
Heerenveen (draw no bet)
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Groningen +1 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
88%
1.13
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
52%
1.94
2.00
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
68%
1.48
1.30
First team to score
Heerenveen to score first
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Heerenveen ahead at half-time
37%
2.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heerenveen / FT Heerenveen
29%
3.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
12.71
–
Recent results
Groningen – last 6
LLLDLW
8 Nov
@ AZ Alkmaar
3–4
L
1 Nov
vs Sparta Rotterdam
2–3
L
29 Oct
vs Emmen
0–2
L
25 Oct
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–2
D
18 Oct
vs Ajax
2–5
L
11 Oct
@ Excelsior
5–1
W
2.3Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Heerenveen – last 6
WWWWWL
8 Nov
vs Feyenoord
5–3
W
31 Oct
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–0
W
28 Oct
@ Excelsior Maassluis
2–0
W
24 Oct
@ ADO Den Haag
3–2
W
16 Oct
vs Excelsior
4–0
W
9 Oct
@ PSV Eindhoven
0–2
L
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Groningen and Heerenveen.
What is the prediction for Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Groningen vs Heerenveen?
On our numbers Groningen have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Heerenveen 42%.
How many goals will there be in Groningen vs Heerenveen?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Our predicted score is Groningen 1–2 Heerenveen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Groningen vs Heerenveen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Euroborg.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
