ASA v Sergipe Prediction & Expected Goals (21 Jun) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultASA to win ✗50% · @2.10

Double chanceASA or draw ✓77% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.10

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.02

ASA vs Sergipe: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

21:00 WAT, Sunday 21 June: ASA v Sergipe in the Serie D.

Current form

ASA, last 5: DDLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Jacuipense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Sergipe, last 5: DLDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Serra Branca, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 1.4 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give ASA 1.5 xG, Sergipe 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – ASA 50%, draw 27%, Sergipe 23%.
Lower-risk option: ASA or draw (77%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 54%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was ASA or draw (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: ASA 1–0 Sergipe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

ASA50%fair 2.01 · @2.10

Draw27%fair 3.72 · @2.90

Sergipe23%fair 4.30 · @3.40

2.34Expected goals

1.49ASA xG

0.85Sergipe xG

54%Both score

39%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%

1–112%

2–011%

0–010%

2–19%

0–18%

From our goals model: ASA 1.5 – 0.8 Sergipe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	ASA to win ✗	50%	2.01	2.10
Double chance	ASA or draw ✓	77%	1.30	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	54%	1.86	2.10 ▲
Draw no bet	ASA (draw no bet)	68%	1.47	–
Asian handicap	Sergipe +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	64%	1.56	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	66%	1.51	1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	61%	1.65	1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	79%	1.26	1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	90%	1.11	1.05
First team to score	ASA to score first ✗	58%	1.74	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	45%	2.22	–
Half-time / full-time	HT ASA / FT ASA ✗	31%	3.20	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.02	–

ASA – last 6

DDLDWL

14 Jun	@ Jacuipense	1–1	D
30 May	vs CSE	0–0	D
7 May	@ Sport Recife	0–1	L
30 Apr	@ Juazeirense	1–1	D
9 Apr	vs CRB	2–0	W
2 Apr	vs CSA	2–3	L

1.0Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

Sergipe – last 5

DLDWD

14 Jun	vs Serra Branca	1–1	D
31 May	@ Decisão	2–3	L
17 May	@ Lagarto	1–1	D
4 May	@ Retrô	3–1	W
27 Feb	@ América SE	1–1	D

1.6Scored / game

1.4Conceded / game

100%Both scored

40%Over 2.5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for ASA vs Sergipe?

Our pick is ASA or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win ASA vs Sergipe?

On our numbers ASA have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Sergipe 23%.

How many goals will there be in ASA vs Sergipe?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for ASA vs Sergipe?

Our predicted score is ASA 1–0 Sergipe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is ASA vs Sergipe?

ASA vs Sergipe (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

ASA v Sergipe: numbers & prediction

ASA

Sergipe

ASA or draw