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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

CSKA Sofia v Derry City: numbers & prediction

UEFA Europa League · Europe · Vasil Levski National Sports Academy

CSKA Sofia

WLLDW
3–2
FT

Derry City

LWDLW
CSKA Sofia 67%Draw 21%Derry City 12% Expected goals 2.00 – 0.83
78%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultCSKA Sofia to win ✓67% · @1.26
Double chanceCSKA Sofia or draw ✓88% · fair 1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.20

CSKA Sofia vs Derry City: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:00 WAT, Thursday 9 July: CSKA Sofia v Derry City in the UEFA Europa League, played at Vasil Levski National Sports Academy.

Current form

CSKA Sofia, last 5: WLLDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Marek, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Derry City, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Waterford, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give CSKA Sofia 2.0 xG, Derry City 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – CSKA Sofia 67%, draw 21%, Derry City 12%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 54%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: CSKA Sofia 2–0 Derry City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

CSKA Sofia67%fair 1.49 · @1.26
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @5.00
Derry City12%fair 8.12 · @10.00
2.84Expected goals
2.00CSKA Sofia xG
0.83Derry City xG
54%Both score
55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%

From our goals model: CSKA Sofia 2.0 – 0.8 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCSKA Sofia to win ✓67%1.491.26
Double chanceCSKA Sofia or draw ✓88%1.14–
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.852.05 ▲
Draw no betCSKA Sofia (draw no bet) ✓84%1.18–
Asian handicapCSKA Sofia -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓65%1.55–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78%1.291.20
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓55%1.811.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗66%1.511.45
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗84%1.19–
First team to scoreCSKA Sofia to score first66%1.50–
Half-time resultCSKA Sofia ahead at half-time ✓46%2.15–
Half-time / full-timeHT CSKA Sofia / FT CSKA Sofia ✓42%2.41–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.20–

Recent results

CSKA Sofia – last 6

WLLDWD
3 Julvs Marek3–0W
24 Junvs Polessya0–4L
25 May@ Ludogorets0–1L
13 Mayvs CSKA 19481–1D
8 May@ CSKA 19481–0W
29 Aprvs Ludogorets0–0D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Derry City – last 6

LWDLWL
3 Julvs Waterford2–4L
26 Junvs Drogheda United2–0W
22 Jun@ Shamrock Rovers1–1D
19 Jun@ Galway United1–2L
12 Junvs Bohemians4–1W
29 May@ Dundalk1–2L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between CSKA Sofia and Derry City.

CSKA Sofia vs Derry City head-to-head page →

More UEFA Europa League predictions

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FT Qarabag3 Vestri0 181%1.03X13%12.0026%27.00 2.9–0.7xG O3.5Over 3.5 goals 59%@1.36 ✗
FT Dynamo Kyiv0 Universitatea Cluj0 159%1.44X24%4.10218%6.50 1.8–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✗
FT Sheriff Tiraspol0 Aluminij0 167%1.41X20%4.30213%6.80 2.0–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✗
FT HNK Hajduk Split2 Žilina0 163%1.38X22%4.30215%7.75 2.1–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 80%@1.22 ✓
FT Vojvodina1 Ferencvarosi TC2 123%2.86X35%3.35242%2.26 1.1–1.7xG X2Ferencvarosi TC or draw 77%@1.38 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?

On our numbers CSKA Sofia have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Derry City 12%.

How many goals will there be in CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?

Our predicted score is CSKA Sofia 2–0 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?

CSKA Sofia vs Derry City (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 9 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Vasil Levski National Sports Academy.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.