Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAyr Utd to win ✓44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.32
Ayr Utd vs Arbroath: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 1 August the Championship brings Ayr Utd against Arbroath at Somerset Park. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Ayr Utd are 7th, lower half, on 15 points after 13 matches; Arbroath are 8th (in the drop zone) with 14. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ayr Utd, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Alloa Athletic, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Arbroath, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Stirling Albion, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Ayr Utd, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.0 for Arbroath.
Head to head
When they last met (3 Mar 2026) it ended Arbroath 1–1 Ayr Utd.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ayr Utd 1.4 xG, Arbroath 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ayr Utd 44%, draw 27%, Arbroath 30%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (68%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ayr Utd 1–1 Arbroath. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ayr Utd44%fair 2.29 · @2.45
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @3.10
Arbroath30%fair 3.35 · @2.78
2.46Expected goals
1.39Ayr Utd xG
1.07Arbroath xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–09%
2–08%
From our goals model: Ayr Utd 1.4 – 1.1 Arbroath expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Ayr Utd
Arbroath
Attack vs Championship average
-8%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
+27%
+28%
Our expected goals here
1.50
1.10
Our own ratings from every Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Arbroath?
On our numbers Ayr Utd have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Arbroath 30%.
How many goals will there be in Ayr Utd vs Arbroath?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ayr Utd vs Arbroath?
Our predicted score is Ayr Utd 1–1 Arbroath, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ayr Utd vs Arbroath?
Ayr Utd vs Arbroath (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Somerset Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
