Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Dunfermline to win @ 1.73 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDunfermline to win ✓62% · @1.73
Double chanceDunfermline or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.38
Morton vs Dunfermline: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Dunfermline travel to face Morton on Saturday 19 September in the Championship, with Cappielow Park the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Morton are 9th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 13 matches; Dunfermline are 3rd (among the top four) with 25. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Morton, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Livingston, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Dunfermline, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Queen's Park, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Dunfermline, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.2 for Morton.
Head to head
When they last met (17 Feb 2026) it ended Morton 2–0 Dunfermline.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Morton 0.6 xG, Dunfermline 1.5 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Morton 14%, draw 24%, Dunfermline 62%.
Lower-risk option: Dunfermline or draw (86%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Dunfermline to win @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Dunfermline or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Morton 0–1 Dunfermline. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Morton14%fair 6.98 · @4.40
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.50
Dunfermline62%fair 1.62 · @1.73
2.08Expected goals
0.56Morton xG
1.52Dunfermline xG
54%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–119%
0–214%
0–012%
1–111%
1–28%
0–37%
From our goals model: Morton 0.6 – 1.5 Dunfermline expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Dunfermline or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Morton vs Dunfermline?
On our numbers Morton have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Dunfermline 62%.
How many goals will there be in Morton vs Dunfermline?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Morton vs Dunfermline?
Our predicted score is Morton 0–1 Dunfermline, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Morton vs Dunfermline?
Morton vs Dunfermline (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Cappielow Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
