Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Arbroath to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultArbroath to win ✗60% · @1.80
Double chanceArbroath or draw ✗86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.29
Arbroath vs Morton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 10 October: Arbroath v Morton in the Championship, played at Gayfield Park. In the table, Arbroath are 8th, in the drop zone, on 14 points after 14 matches; Morton are 9th (in the drop zone) with 13. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Arbroath, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Partick, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Morton, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Raith Rovers, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Arbroath, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.2 for Morton.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Aug 2026) it ended Morton 1–2 Arbroath. The last 2 head-to-heads: Arbroath 1 win, Morton 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arbroath 1.6 xG, Morton 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arbroath 60%, draw 26%, Morton 14%.
Lower-risk option: Arbroath or draw (86%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Arbroath to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Arbroath or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arbroath 1–0 Morton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arbroath60%fair 1.68 · @1.80
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.25
Morton14%fair 7.20 · @4.33
2.28Expected goals
1.62Arbroath xG
0.66Morton xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Arbroath 1.6 – 0.7 Morton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Arbroath or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Arbroath vs Morton?
On our numbers Arbroath have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Morton 14%.
How many goals will there be in Arbroath vs Morton?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arbroath vs Morton?
Our predicted score is Arbroath 1–0 Morton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Arbroath vs Morton?
Arbroath vs Morton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Gayfield Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
