Arsenal 65%Draw 21%Leeds 14%Expected goals 1.64 – 0.56
65%
Betarazi pick
Arsenal to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
Picks by market
ResultArsenal to win ✓65% · @1.40
Double chanceArsenal or draw ✓86% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.98
Arsenal vs Leeds: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 10 October the Premier League brings Arsenal against Leeds at Emirates Stadium. Kick-off: 12:30 WAT. In the table, Arsenal are 1st, leading the league, on 27 points after 10 matches; Leeds are 9th (upper half) with 14. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Arsenal, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Brighton, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Leeds, last 5: DWLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Crystal Palace, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Arsenal, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.5 for Leeds.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arsenal 1.6 xG, Leeds 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arsenal 65%, draw 21%, Leeds 14%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Arsenal to win (65%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arsenal 1–0 Leeds. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arsenal65%fair 1.54 · @1.40
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @4.60
Leeds14%fair 7.31 · @7.00
2.20Expected goals
1.64Arsenal xG
0.56Leeds xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Arsenal 1.6 – 0.6 Leeds expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win✓
65%
1.54
1.40
Double chance
Arsenal or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
2.00
Draw no bet
Arsenal (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Arsenal -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Arsenal to score first
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal✗
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.98
–
Recent results
Arsenal – last 6
LWWWWW
19 Sep
@ Brighton
0–3
L
15 Sep
@ Ipswich
4–2
W
12 Sep
@ Sunderland
2–0
W
9 Sep
@ Napoli
1–0
W
6 Sep
vs Chelsea
2–1
W
31 Aug
@ Aston Villa
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leeds – last 6
DWLDDW
20 Sep
vs Crystal Palace
0–0
D
14 Sep
vs Newcastle
4–1
W
9 Sep
@ Chelsea
3–6
L
5 Sep
@ Brighton
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Brentford
1–1
D
25 Aug
@ Nottingham Forest
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal and Leeds.
Our pick is Arsenal to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds?
On our numbers Arsenal have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leeds 14%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Leeds?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Leeds?
Our predicted score is Arsenal 1–0 Leeds, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Arsenal vs Leeds?
Arsenal vs Leeds (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Emirates Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
