Chelsea 60%Draw 22%Bournemouth 18%Expected goals 2.34 – 1.26
82%
Betarazi pick
Chelsea or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultChelsea to win ✓60% · @1.67
Double chanceChelsea or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.43
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.61
Chelsea vs Bournemouth: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Chelsea welcome Bournemouth to Stamford Bridge for a Premier League fixture on Saturday 10 October (15:00 WAT). In the table, Chelsea are 5th, upper half, on 16 points after 10 matches; Bournemouth are 7th (upper half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Chelsea, last 5: LDWLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Brentford, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Bournemouth, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Liverpool, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chelsea 2.3 xG, Bournemouth 1.3 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 70% and GG at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chelsea 60%, draw 22%, Bournemouth 18%.
Lower-risk option: Chelsea or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Chelsea or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chelsea 2–1 Bournemouth. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chelsea60%fair 1.66 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @4.00
Bournemouth18%fair 5.51 · @4.50
3.60Expected goals
2.34Chelsea xG
1.26Bournemouth xG
63%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–18%
2–07%
3–17%
1–06%
2–26%
From our goals model: Chelsea 2.3 – 1.3 Bournemouth expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chelsea to win✓
60%
1.66
1.67
Double chance
Chelsea or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.50
Draw no bet
Chelsea (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Chelsea -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
71%
1.42
–
First team to score
Chelsea to score first✓
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Chelsea ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chelsea / FT Chelsea✓
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.61
–
Recent results
Chelsea – last 6
LDWLWW
18 Sep
@ Brentford
0–3
L
12 Sep
vs Hull City
2–2
D
9 Sep
vs Leeds
6–3
W
6 Sep
@ Arsenal
1–2
L
30 Aug
vs Brighton
4–3
W
27 Aug
vs Luton
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bournemouth – last 6
LWDWDD
20 Sep
vs Liverpool
0–1
L
17 Sep
@ Real Sociedad
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Brentford
2–2
D
8 Sep
vs Lincoln
4–0
W
5 Sep
@ Newcastle
2–2
D
29 Aug
vs Everton
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chelsea and Bournemouth.
What is the prediction for Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Our pick is Chelsea or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
On our numbers Chelsea have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bournemouth 18%.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Our predicted score is Chelsea 2–1 Bournemouth, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Chelsea vs Bournemouth (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stamford Bridge.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
