Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultMiddlesbrough to win ✗42% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.67
Burnley vs Middlesbrough: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Burnley welcome Middlesbrough to Turf Moor for a Championship fixture on Wednesday 2 September (20:00 WAT). In the table, Burnley are 22nd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; Middlesbrough are 2nd (among the top four) with 29. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Burnley, last 5: LDLDD Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Norwich, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Middlesbrough, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over West Brom, at home. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Momentum favours Middlesbrough, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Burnley.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Burnley 1.6 xG, Middlesbrough 1.7 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Burnley 37%, draw 21%, Middlesbrough 42%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Burnley37%fair 2.72 · @2.75
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.50
Middlesbrough42%fair 2.39 · @2.38
3.31Expected goals
1.60Burnley xG
1.72Middlesbrough xG
62%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Burnley 1.6 – 1.7 Middlesbrough expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Middlesbrough to win✗
42%
2.39
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.60
Draw no bet
Middlesbrough (draw no bet)
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Burnley +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.14
First team to score
Middlesbrough to score first✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Middlesbrough / FT Middlesbrough✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.67
–
Recent results
Burnley – last 6
LDLDDL
29 Aug
@ Norwich
1–4
L
26 Aug
@ Bradford
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ West Brom
1–3
L
16 Aug
vs West Ham
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Notts County
1–1
D
2 Aug
vs Torino
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Middlesbrough – last 6
WWLWWD
29 Aug
vs West Brom
3–1
W
25 Aug
@ Doncaster
3–1
W
22 Aug
@ Blackburn
1–2
L
15 Aug
vs Lincoln
2–1
W
7 Aug
vs Wrexham
1–0
W
1 Aug
vs Espanyol
3–3
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Middlesbrough.
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
On our numbers Burnley have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Middlesbrough 42%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Our predicted score is Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Burnley vs Middlesbrough (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
