Derby 33%Draw 22%Stoke City 45%Expected goals 1.39 – 1.66
58%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultStoke City to win ✓45% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.04
Derby vs Stoke City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 17 October: Derby v Stoke City in the Championship, played at Pride Park. In the table, Derby are 23rd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; Stoke City are 3rd (among the top four) with 29. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Derby, last 5: LDDLL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to QPR, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Stoke City, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Middlesbrough, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Momentum favours Stoke City, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.3 for Derby.
Head to head
When they last met (6 Apr 2026) it ended Derby 2–0 Stoke City.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derby 1.4 xG, Stoke City 1.7 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 59% and GG at 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derby 33%, draw 22%, Stoke City 45%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.71, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derby 1–1 Stoke City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derby33%fair 3.00 · @2.80
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.30
Stoke City45%fair 2.23 · @2.30
3.05Expected goals
1.39Derby xG
1.66Stoke City xG
58%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Derby 1.4 – 1.7 Stoke City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
On our numbers Derby have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Stoke City 45%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Stoke City?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Stoke City?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Stoke City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Stoke City?
Derby vs Stoke City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
