Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultSouthampton to win ✗65% · @1.44
Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Southampton vs Bolton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 17 October: Southampton v Bolton in the Championship. In the table, Southampton are 7th, upper half, on 24 points after 15 matches; Bolton are 18th (lower half) with 17.
Current form
Southampton, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Norwich, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Bolton, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Wolves, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Southampton, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Bolton.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Southampton 2.3 xG, Bolton 0.9 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Southampton 65%, draw 22%, Bolton 13%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.53.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Southampton to win (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Southampton 2–0 Bolton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Southampton65%fair 1.53 · @1.44
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @4.60
Bolton13%fair 7.70 · @5.50
3.20Expected goals
2.25Southampton xG
0.95Bolton xG
60%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Southampton 2.3 – 0.9 Bolton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✗
65%
1.53
1.44
Double chance
Southampton or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.53
Draw no bet
Southampton (draw no bet)
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Southampton -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
First team to score
Southampton to score first✗
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Southampton ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✗
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Southampton – last 6
WWLWWD
14 Oct
@ Norwich
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Portsmouth
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Wrexham
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Bristol City
4–1
W
8 Sep
vs Swansea
3–1
W
5 Sep
@ Lincoln
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bolton – last 6
WLWWLL
13 Oct
@ Wolves
3–1
W
10 Oct
vs Stoke City
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Norwich
4–3
W
12 Sep
vs Cardiff
1–0
W
8 Sep
vs West Ham
2–3
L
5 Sep
@ Millwall
0–4
L
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Bolton.
Our pick is Southampton to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton?
On our numbers Southampton have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bolton 13%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Bolton?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Bolton?
Our predicted score is Southampton 2–0 Bolton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Bolton?
Southampton vs Bolton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
