Monza vs Avellino: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Avellino travel to face Monza on Friday 14 August in the Coppa Italia – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT.
Current form
Monza, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Padova, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Avellino, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Torino, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monza 1.8 xG, Avellino 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monza 64%, draw 19%, Avellino 16%.
Lower-risk option: Monza or draw (84%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monza 1–0 Avellino. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monza64%fair 1.55 · @1.62
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @3.75
Avellino16%fair 6.19 · @5.30
2.57Expected goals
1.82Monza xG
0.75Avellino xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Monza 1.8 – 0.7 Avellino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monza to win✓
64%
1.55
1.62
Double chance
Monza or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.95
Draw no bet
Monza (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Monza -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.09
First team to score
Monza to score first✓
66%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Monza ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monza / FT Monza✓
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.53
–
Recent results
Monza – last 6
DLWWLW
7 Aug
vs Padova
3–3
D
30 Jul
vs Aris Thessalonikis
1–3
L
24 Jul
@ Galatasaray
2–0
W
18 Jul
vs PRO Vercelli
4–3
W
29 May
vs Catanzaro
0–2
L
24 May
@ Catanzaro
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Avellino – last 6
DLWWLW
8 Aug
vs Torino
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Lazio
3–6
L
26 Jul
@ Sambenedettese
5–0
W
22 Jul
vs Scafatese
3–1
W
12 May
@ Catanzaro
0–3
L
8 May
vs Modena
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monza and Avellino.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Monza vs Avellino?
On our numbers Monza have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Avellino 16%.
How many goals will there be in Monza vs Avellino?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monza vs Avellino?
Our predicted score is Monza 1–0 Avellino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Monza vs Avellino?
Monza vs Avellino (Coppa Italia) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Coppa Italia · Italy
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