Burgos v Eldense Prediction & Expected Goals (27 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBurgos to win ✓59% · @1.85

Double chanceBurgos or draw ✓84% · @1.22

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.85

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.72

Burgos vs Eldense: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

17:30 WAT, Sunday 27 September: Burgos v Eldense in the Segunda División, played at Municipal El Plantio. In the table, Burgos are 3rd, among the top four, on 24 points after 13 matches; Eldense are 15th (lower half) with 14.

Current form

Burgos, last 5: WWDDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Las Palmas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Eldense, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Eibar, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Burgos, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Eldense.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Burgos 1.7 xG, Eldense 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 49%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Burgos 59%, draw 24%, Eldense 16%.
Lower-risk option: Burgos or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Burgos to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Burgos or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burgos 1–0 Eldense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Burgos59%fair 1.68 · @1.85

Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20

Eldense16%fair 6.15 · @4.00

2.42Expected goals

1.67Burgos xG

0.75Eldense xG

49%Both score

44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%

2–012%

1–111%

2–19%

0–09%

3–07%

From our goals model: Burgos 1.7 – 0.7 Eldense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Burgos to win ✓	59%	1.68	1.85 ▲
Double chance	Burgos or draw ✓	84%	1.19	1.22
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	51%	1.96	1.85
Draw no bet	Burgos (draw no bet) ✓	79%	1.27	–
Asian handicap	Eldense +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	67%	1.50	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	70%	1.44	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	56%	1.77	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	77%	1.29	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	90%	1.11	–
First team to score	Burgos to score first ✓	63%	1.59	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	43%	2.31	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Burgos / FT Burgos ✓	37%	2.72	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✓	15%	6.72	–

Burgos – last 6

WWDDLW

20 Sep	@ Las Palmas	2–1	W
11 Sep	vs AD Ceuta FC	3–1	W
6 Sep	@ Oviedo	0–0	D
31 Aug	vs Real Sociedad II	2–2	D
23 Aug	@ Sporting Gijon	0–1	L
16 Aug	vs Cordoba	3–2	W

1.7Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Eldense – last 6

LWDLDL

19 Sep	vs Eibar	1–2	L
13 Sep	@ Sporting Gijon	1–0	W
5 Sep	vs Mallorca	0–0	D
29 Aug	@ Leganes	0–1	L
22 Aug	vs Cadiz	2–2	D
17 Aug	@ Almeria	0–3	L

0.7Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5

Team

Pts

+14

+18

-1

+10

-2

-2

-6

-6

-7

-12

-5

-2

-11

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burgos vs Eldense?

Our pick is Burgos or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Burgos vs Eldense?

On our numbers Burgos have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Eldense 16%.

How many goals will there be in Burgos vs Eldense?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Burgos vs Eldense?

Our predicted score is Burgos 1–0 Eldense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Burgos vs Eldense?

Burgos vs Eldense (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal El Plantio.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Burgos v Eldense: numbers & prediction