Las Palmas 21%Draw 18%Castellón 61%Expected goals 0.89 – 1.78
61%
Betarazi pick
Castellón to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
Picks by market
ResultCastellón to win ✓61% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Las Palmas vs Castellón: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Saturday 17 October: Las Palmas v Castellón in the Segunda División, played at Estadio de Gran Canaria. In the table, Las Palmas are 10th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Castellón are 2nd (among the top four) with 27.
Current form
Las Palmas, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Mallorca, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Castellón, last 5: LDWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FC Andorra, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Castellón, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Las Palmas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Las Palmas 0.9 xG, Castellón 1.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Las Palmas 21%, draw 18%, Castellón 61%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Castellón to win (61%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.64, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Las Palmas 0–1 Castellón. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Las Palmas21%fair 4.74 · @3.30
Draw18%fair 5.56 · @3.40
Castellón61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
2.67Expected goals
0.89Las Palmas xG
1.78Castellón xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Las Palmas 0.9 – 1.8 Castellón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellón to win✓
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.29 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.55
Draw no bet
Castellón (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Las Palmas +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Castellón to score first✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Castellón ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellón / FT Castellón✓
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.24
–
Recent results
Las Palmas – last 6
LDLLWD
11 Oct
@ Mallorca
1–3
L
4 Oct
vs Valladolid
2–2
D
27 Sep
@ Eibar
2–3
L
20 Sep
vs Burgos
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Cadiz
1–0
W
4 Sep
vs Leganes
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Castellón – last 6
LDWWWW
11 Oct
@ FC Andorra
0–1
L
4 Oct
vs AD Ceuta FC
1–1
D
28 Sep
@ Leganes
2–0
W
19 Sep
vs Tenerife
5–0
W
12 Sep
@ Girona
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Albacete
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Palmas and Castellón.
What is the prediction for Las Palmas vs Castellón?
Our pick is Castellón to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Las Palmas vs Castellón?
On our numbers Las Palmas have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Castellón 61%.
How many goals will there be in Las Palmas vs Castellón?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Palmas vs Castellón?
Our predicted score is Las Palmas 0–1 Castellón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Las Palmas vs Castellón?
Las Palmas vs Castellón (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
