Value bet: UD Logroñés to win @ 2.75 – our chance 43% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultUD Logroñés to win ✓43% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.32
Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:15 WAT, Sunday 27 September: Mérida AD v UD Logroñés in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, played at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto. In the table, Mérida AD are 8th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; UD Logroñés are 2nd (among the top four) with 23.
Current form
Mérida AD, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Ponferradina, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
UD Logroñés, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Pontevedra, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours UD Logroñés, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.0 for Mérida AD.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mérida AD 1.2 xG, UD Logroñés 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mérida AD 33%, draw 24%, UD Logroñés 43%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: UD Logroñés to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.73, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mérida AD 1–1 UD Logroñés. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mérida AD33%fair 3.07 · @2.40
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @2.88
UD Logroñés43%fair 2.32 · @2.75
2.63Expected goals
1.20Mérida AD xG
1.43UD Logroñés xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Mérida AD 1.2 – 1.4 UD Logroñés expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UD Logroñés to win✓
43%
2.32
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.80
Draw no bet
UD Logroñés (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Mérida AD +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
UD Logroñés to score first
50%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UD Logroñés / FT UD Logroñés✓
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.32
–
Recent results
Mérida AD – last 6
LLLWWL
19 Sep
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Mirandes
3–4
L
6 Sep
@ Cultural Leonesa
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
1–0
W
14 Aug
vs Alcorcon
2–1
W
7 Aug
@ Leganes
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
UD Logroñés – last 6
DWWWWW
18 Sep
vs Pontevedra
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ UD Ourense
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Zamora
2–1
W
31 Aug
vs Extremadura 1924
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Huesca II
4–0
W
21 Aug
vs Mirandes
4–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mérida AD and UD Logroñés.
What is the prediction for Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés?
On our numbers Mérida AD have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and UD Logroñés 43%.
How many goals will there be in Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés?
Our predicted score is Mérida AD 1–1 UD Logroñés, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés?
Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
