Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Barakaldo to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBarakaldo to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceBarakaldo or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.87
Barakaldo vs Real Avilés: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Real Avilés travel to face Barakaldo on Sunday 27 September in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, with Campo de Lasesarre the venue – the ball rolls at 11:00 WAT. In the table, Barakaldo are 12th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Real Avilés are 4th (among the top four) with 17. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Barakaldo, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Racing Ferrol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Real Avilés, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with CD Coria, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Real Avilés, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Barakaldo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Barakaldo 1.5 xG, Real Avilés 0.6 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Barakaldo 61%, draw 21%, Real Avilés 18%.
Lower-risk option: Barakaldo or draw (82%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Barakaldo to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Barakaldo or draw (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Barakaldo 1–0 Real Avilés. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Barakaldo61%fair 1.64 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.10
Real Avilés18%fair 5.52 · @3.60
2.13Expected goals
1.50Barakaldo xG
0.63Real Avilés xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–013%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Barakaldo 1.5 – 0.6 Real Avilés expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barakaldo to win✗
61%
1.64
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Barakaldo or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.73
Draw no bet
Barakaldo (draw no bet)
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Real Avilés +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Barakaldo to score first✗
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barakaldo / FT Barakaldo✗
35%
2.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.87
–
Recent results
Barakaldo – last 6
LWLDLW
19 Sep
@ Racing Ferrol
0–1
L
11 Sep
vs Extremadura 1924
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ CD Coria
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
14 Aug
@ Portugalete
0–2
L
9 May
vs Mérida AD
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Real Avilés – last 6
DWLLWW
19 Sep
@ CD Coria
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Unionistas de Salamanca
3–1
W
6 Sep
@ Athletic Club II
1–2
L
28 Aug
vs Pontevedra
0–1
L
21 Aug
vs Sporting Gijón II
4–2
W
15 Aug
@ Mosconia
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barakaldo and Real Avilés.
What is the prediction for Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?
Our pick is Barakaldo or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?
On our numbers Barakaldo have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Real Avilés 18%.
How many goals will there be in Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?
Our predicted score is Barakaldo 1–0 Real Avilés, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?
Barakaldo vs Real Avilés (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Lasesarre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
