Value bet: Cacereño to win @ 2.50 – our chance 49% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCacereño to win ✗49% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.02
UD Ourense vs Cacereño: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
UD Ourense welcome Cacereño to Estadio de O Couto for a Primera División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Sunday 27 September (11:00 WAT). In the table, UD Ourense are 20th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 11 matches; Cacereño are 10th (upper half) with 15.
Current form
UD Ourense, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Unionistas de Salamanca, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Cacereño, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Arenas Getxo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Cacereño, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for UD Ourense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UD Ourense 0.8 xG, Cacereño 1.3 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UD Ourense 26%, draw 24%, Cacereño 49%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Cacereño to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: UD Ourense 1–1 Cacereño. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UD Ourense26%fair 3.80 · @2.60
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @2.90
Cacereño49%fair 2.02 · @2.50
2.13Expected goals
0.84UD Ourense xG
1.29Cacereño xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
1–113%
0–012%
0–210%
1–010%
1–28%
From our goals model: UD Ourense 0.8 – 1.3 Cacereño expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cacereño to win✗
49%
2.02
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Draw no bet
Cacereño (draw no bet)
65%
1.53
–
Asian handicap
UD Ourense +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Cacereño to score first✗
54%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cacereño / FT Cacereño✗
27%
3.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.02
–
Recent results
UD Ourense – last 6
LLLLWW
19 Sep
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
1–3
L
12 Sep
vs UD Logroñés
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Mirandes
0–2
L
29 Aug
vs Ponferradina
0–1
L
31 May
@ Conquense
2–0
W
24 May
vs Conquense
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Cacereño – last 6
WLWWDW
20 Sep
vs Arenas Getxo
3–0
W
16 Sep
@ Recreativo Huelva
1–2
L
13 Sep
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–0
W
9 Sep
vs UD San Pedro
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
1–1
D
28 Aug
vs Mirandes
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UD Ourense and Cacereño.
What is the prediction for UD Ourense vs Cacereño?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win UD Ourense vs Cacereño?
On our numbers UD Ourense have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cacereño 49%.
How many goals will there be in UD Ourense vs Cacereño?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UD Ourense vs Cacereño?
Our predicted score is UD Ourense 1–1 Cacereño, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is UD Ourense vs Cacereño?
UD Ourense vs Cacereño (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de O Couto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
