Value bet: Ponferradina to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPontevedra to win ✗45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.51
Pontevedra vs Ponferradina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ponferradina travel to face Pontevedra on Sunday 27 September in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 – the ball rolls at 17:15 WAT. In the table, Pontevedra are 3rd, among the top four, on 18 points after 11 matches; Ponferradina are 11th (lower half) with 15. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Pontevedra, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with UD Logroñés, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Ponferradina, last 5: WLDWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Mérida AD, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pontevedra 1.2 xG, Ponferradina 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pontevedra 45%, draw 24%, Ponferradina 31%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Ponferradina to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.83, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pontevedra 1–1 Ponferradina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pontevedra45%fair 2.21 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @2.88
Ponferradina31%fair 3.27 · @3.50
2.13Expected goals
1.21Pontevedra xG
0.92Ponferradina xG
55%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Pontevedra 1.2 – 0.9 Ponferradina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pontevedra to win✗
45%
2.21
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Pontevedra (draw no bet)
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Ponferradina +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Pontevedra to score first✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pontevedra / FT Pontevedra✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.51
–
Recent results
Pontevedra – last 6
DLWWLW
18 Sep
@ UD Logroñés
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Athletic Club II
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs Arenas Getxo
4–1
W
28 Aug
@ Real Avilés
1–0
W
19 Aug
@ Coruxo
1–3
L
15 Aug
vs Ourense CF
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Ponferradina – last 6
WLDWDW
19 Sep
vs Mérida AD
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
1–2
L
4 Sep
vs Lugo
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ UD Ourense
1–0
W
19 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ Marino de Luanco
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pontevedra and Ponferradina.
What is the prediction for Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?
On our numbers Pontevedra have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ponferradina 31%.
How many goals will there be in Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?
Our predicted score is Pontevedra 1–1 Ponferradina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?
Pontevedra vs Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
