Atlético Madrid II 63%Draw 23%Real Jaén 14%Expected goals 2.16 – 0.97
86%
Betarazi pick
Atlético Madrid II or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Atlético Madrid II to win @ 1.75 – our chance 63% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtlético Madrid II to win ✗63% · @1.75
Double chanceAtlético Madrid II or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 25 October the Primera División RFEF Group 2 brings Atlético Madrid II against Real Jaén. Kick-off: 12:00 WAT. In the table, Atlético Madrid II are 15th, lower half, on 11 points after 11 matches; Real Jaén are 4th (among the top four) with 19.
Current form
Atlético Madrid II, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Gimnastic, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Real Jaén, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Rayo Majadahonda, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Real Jaén, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Atlético Madrid II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlético Madrid II 2.2 xG, Real Jaén 1.0 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlético Madrid II 63%, draw 23%, Real Jaén 14%.
Lower-risk option: Atlético Madrid II or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Atlético Madrid II to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atlético Madrid II or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlético Madrid II 2–0 Real Jaén. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlético Madrid II63%fair 1.59 · @1.75
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.50
Real Jaén14%fair 7.27 · @3.60
3.13Expected goals
2.16Atlético Madrid II xG
0.97Real Jaén xG
60%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Atlético Madrid II 2.2 – 1.0 Real Jaén expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atlético Madrid II to win✗
63%
1.59
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Atlético Madrid II or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Draw no bet
Atlético Madrid II (draw no bet)
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Atlético Madrid II -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
First team to score
Atlético Madrid II to score first✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Atlético Madrid II ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atlético Madrid II / FT Atlético Madrid II✗
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
Atlético Madrid II – last 6
LDLLDW
18 Oct
@ Gimnastic
1–2
L
11 Oct
vs Zaragoza
4–4
D
2 Oct
@ Real Madrid II
2–3
L
25 Sep
vs Villarreal II
1–3
L
19 Sep
@ Huesca
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Real Murcia
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Real Jaén – last 6
WDDLWW
18 Oct
vs Rayo Majadahonda
1–0
W
10 Oct
vs Villarreal II
3–3
D
3 Oct
@ Hércules
0–0
D
27 Sep
@ Antequera
0–2
L
19 Sep
vs Ibiza
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Teruel
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético Madrid II and Real Jaén.
What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
Our pick is Atlético Madrid II or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
On our numbers Atlético Madrid II have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Real Jaén 14%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
Our predicted score is Atlético Madrid II 2–0 Real Jaén, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
