Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 52% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +65%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓52% · @3.20
Double chanceAmorebieta or draw ✓80% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Amorebieta vs Arosa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arosa travel to face Amorebieta on Sunday 6 September in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1, with Campo Municipal de Urritxe the venue – the ball rolls at 11:00 WAT. In the table, Amorebieta are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 10 matches; Arosa are 15th (lower half) with 8.
Current form
Amorebieta, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Athletic Club II, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Arosa, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Pontevedra, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Arosa, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for Amorebieta.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Amorebieta 1.3 xG, Arosa 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 47%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Amorebieta 29%, draw 52%, Arosa 20%.
Lower-risk option: Amorebieta or draw (80%) at 1.28.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Amorebieta or draw (80%, odds 1.28 – longer than our fair 1.24, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Amorebieta 1–1 Arosa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Amorebieta29%fair 3.49 · @2.10
Draw52%fair 1.93 · @3.20
Arosa20%fair 5.09 · @3.10
2.32Expected goals
1.25Amorebieta xG
1.07Arosa xG
47%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Amorebieta 1.3 – 1.1 Arosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
52%
1.93
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Amorebieta or draw✓
80%
1.24
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
–
Draw no bet
Amorebieta (draw no bet)
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Arosa +1 (Asian handicap)✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.09
–
First team to score
Amorebieta to score first
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Amorebieta / FT Amorebieta✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Amorebieta – last 6
LWDWWD
8 Aug
vs Athletic Club II
0–1
L
3 May
@ Mutilvera
2–0
W
26 Apr
vs Sestao River
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Deportivo Alavés II
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs Eibar II
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Tudelano
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Arosa – last 6
WWDDWW
1 Aug
vs Pontevedra
3–1
W
26 Apr
vs Boiro
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Estradense
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Villalbés
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Somozas
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Coruña
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Amorebieta and Arosa.
Our pick is Amorebieta or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Amorebieta vs Arosa?
On our numbers Amorebieta have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 52% and Arosa 20%.
How many goals will there be in Amorebieta vs Arosa?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Amorebieta vs Arosa?
Our predicted score is Amorebieta 1–1 Arosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Amorebieta vs Arosa?
Amorebieta vs Arosa (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Municipal de Urritxe.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
