Value bet: Castellonense to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultCastellonense to win45% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.53
Castellonense vs La Nucía: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 11 November the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 brings Castellonense against La Nucía. Kick-off: 18:45 WAT. In the table, Castellonense are 4th, among the top four, on 16 points after 9 matches; La Nucía are 5th (upper half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Castellonense, last 5: LDDWL Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Alcoyano, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
La Nucía, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Atlético Baleares, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Castellonense 1.7 xG, La Nucía 1.2 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Castellonense 45%, draw 25%, La Nucía 30%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Castellonense to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 45%.
Betarazi verdict
Our call: Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.32). Most likely score in line with that pick: Castellonense 1–1 La Nucía. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Castellonense45%fair 2.23 · @2.50
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @2.90
La Nucía30%fair 3.35 · @2.62
2.90Expected goals
1.69Castellonense xG
1.21La Nucía xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–09%
2–08%
1–27%
0–17%
From our goals model: Castellonense 1.7 – 1.2 La Nucía expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Castellonense
La Nucía
Attack vs Segunda División RFEF Group 3 average
+31%
+10%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
+9%
Our expected goals here
2.10
1.30
Our own ratings from every Segunda División RFEF Group 3 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellonense to win
45%
2.23
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.34
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.81
1.83
Draw no bet
Castellonense (draw no bet)
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
La Nucía +1 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.36
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
50%
2.00
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
71%
1.42
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Castellonense to score first
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellonense / FT Castellonense
29%
3.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.53
–
Recent results
Castellonense – last 6
LDDWLW
8 Nov
vs Alcoyano
3–4
L
31 Oct
@ Valencia II
1–1
D
27 Oct
vs Almeria
0–0
D
24 Oct
@ Intercity
2–0
W
11 Oct
@ Deportiva Minera
2–3
L
4 Oct
vs Real Murcia II
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
La Nucía – last 6
WLLLLW
8 Nov
@ Atlético Baleares
2–1
W
1 Nov
vs Intercity
1–4
L
25 Oct
@ Castellón II
1–2
L
11 Oct
vs Lorca Deportiva
1–3
L
4 Oct
@ Deportiva Minera
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Mallorca II
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castellonense and La Nucía.
What is the prediction for Castellonense vs La Nucía?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win Castellonense vs La Nucía?
On our numbers Castellonense have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and La Nucía 30%.
How many goals will there be in Castellonense vs La Nucía?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castellonense vs La Nucía?
Our predicted score is Castellonense 1–1 La Nucía, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Castellonense vs La Nucía?
Castellonense vs La Nucía (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Wednesday 11 November 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
