Badajoz vs Marbella: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Marbella travel to face Badajoz on Sunday 11 October in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Badajoz are 4th, among the top four, on 17 points after 10 matches; Marbella are 15th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Badajoz, last 5: DDLWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Sevilla Atletico, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Marbella, last 5: LDWLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Real Betis II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Badajoz 1.6 xG, Marbella 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Badajoz 54%, draw 22%, Marbella 24%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.75, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Badajoz 1–1 Marbella. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Badajoz54%fair 1.84 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.20
Marbella24%fair 4.22 · @3.50
2.50Expected goals
1.58Badajoz xG
0.92Marbella xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–08%
0–18%
From our goals model: Badajoz 1.6 – 0.9 Marbella expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Badajoz to win✓
54%
1.84
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.80
Draw no bet
Badajoz (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.44
–
Asian handicap
Marbella +1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Badajoz to score first✓
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Badajoz / FT Badajoz✗
32%
3.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.61
–
Recent results
Badajoz – last 6
DDLWWD
4 Oct
@ Sevilla Atletico
2–2
D
27 Sep
@ Las Palmas II
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Real Betis II
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Xerez
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Tenerife II
2–1
W
20 Jun
@ Cuarte
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Marbella – last 6
LDWLDW
4 Oct
vs Real Betis II
0–2
L
27 Sep
@ Puente Genil
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Atlético Central
4–1
W
13 Sep
@ Sevilla Atletico
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Sanluqueño
2–2
D
22 May
vs Teruel
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Badajoz and Marbella.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Badajoz vs Marbella?
On our numbers Badajoz have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Marbella 24%.
How many goals will there be in Badajoz vs Marbella?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Badajoz vs Marbella?
Our predicted score is Badajoz 1–1 Marbella, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Badajoz vs Marbella?
Badajoz vs Marbella (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
