Value bet: Don Benito to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCiudad de Lucena to win ✓43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.50
Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Don Benito travel to face Ciudad de Lucena on Sunday 11 October in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 – the ball rolls at 16:30 WAT. In the table, Ciudad de Lucena are 3rd, among the top four, on 19 points after 10 matches; Don Benito are 2nd (among the top four) with 20. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ciudad de Lucena, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Puente Genil, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Don Benito, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Estepona, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ciudad de Lucena 1.2 xG, Don Benito 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ciudad de Lucena 43%, draw 25%, Don Benito 32%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Don Benito to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.80, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ciudad de Lucena 1–1 Don Benito. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ciudad de Lucena43%fair 2.33 · @2.10
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @2.88
Don Benito32%fair 3.08 · @3.50
2.20Expected goals
1.20Ciudad de Lucena xG
1.00Don Benito xG
56%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Ciudad de Lucena 1.2 – 1.0 Don Benito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ciudad de Lucena to win✓
43%
2.33
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Ciudad de Lucena (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Don Benito +1 (Asian handicap)✗
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Ciudad de Lucena to score first
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ciudad de Lucena / FT Ciudad de Lucena✓
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.50
–
Recent results
Ciudad de Lucena – last 6
WWLDDW
4 Oct
vs Puente Genil
1–0
W
27 Sep
@ Antoniano
3–0
W
20 Sep
vs Tenerife II
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Mijas Las Lagunas
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Linares Deportivo
1–1
D
10 May
vs Dos Hermanas
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Don Benito – last 6
LWDWWW
3 Oct
@ Estepona
1–3
L
26 Sep
vs Sanluqueño
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Xerez
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Las Palmas II
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Antoniano
2–1
W
3 May
vs Diocesano
8–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ciudad de Lucena and Don Benito.
What is the prediction for Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito?
On our numbers Ciudad de Lucena have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Don Benito 32%.
How many goals will there be in Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito?
Our predicted score is Ciudad de Lucena 1–1 Don Benito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito?
Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
