Xerez 57%Draw 27%Ciudad de Lucena 16%Expected goals 1.50 – 0.67
84%
Betarazi pick
Xerez or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Xerez to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultXerez to win ✗57% · @1.95
Double chanceXerez or draw ✗84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.62
Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 18 October the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 brings Xerez against Ciudad de Lucena. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, Xerez are 6th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Ciudad de Lucena are 3rd (among the top four) with 19.
Current form
Xerez, last 5: DWLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Real Betis II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Ciudad de Lucena, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Don Benito, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Ciudad de Lucena, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Xerez.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Xerez 1.5 xG, Ciudad de Lucena 0.7 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Xerez 57%, draw 27%, Ciudad de Lucena 16%.
Lower-risk option: Xerez or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Xerez to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Xerez or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Xerez 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Xerez57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @2.90
Ciudad de Lucena16%fair 6.18 · @3.75
2.17Expected goals
1.50Xerez xG
0.67Ciudad de Lucena xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–013%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Xerez 1.5 – 0.7 Ciudad de Lucena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Xerez to win✗
57%
1.76
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Xerez or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.95
Draw no bet
Xerez (draw no bet)✗
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Ciudad de Lucena +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Xerez to score first✗
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Xerez / FT Xerez✗
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.62
–
Recent results
Xerez – last 6
DWLDLD
10 Oct
@ Real Betis II
1–1
D
4 Oct
vs Tenerife II
2–1
W
27 Sep
@ Recreativo Huelva
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Don Benito
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Badajoz
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ Estepona
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Ciudad de Lucena – last 6
WWWLDD
11 Oct
vs Don Benito
4–2
W
4 Oct
vs Puente Genil
1–0
W
27 Sep
@ Antoniano
3–0
W
20 Sep
vs Tenerife II
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Mijas Las Lagunas
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Linares Deportivo
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xerez and Ciudad de Lucena.
What is the prediction for Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Our pick is Xerez or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?
On our numbers Xerez have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ciudad de Lucena 16%.
How many goals will there be in Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Our predicted score is Xerez 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Xerez vs Ciudad de Lucena (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
