Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.76
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 6.96
Numancia vs Guadalajara: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:30 WAT, Sunday 27 September: Numancia v Guadalajara in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5. In the table, Numancia are 1st, leading the league, on 19 points after 10 matches; Guadalajara are 9th (upper half) with 13.
Current form
Numancia, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with SS Reyes, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Guadalajara, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over RSD Alcalá, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Numancia, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Guadalajara.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Numancia 1.6 xG, Guadalajara 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 43%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Numancia 58%, draw 20%, Guadalajara 22%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Numancia to win (58%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Numancia 1–0 Guadalajara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Numancia58%fair 1.73 · @1.73
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.40
Guadalajara22%fair 4.56 · @4.10
2.40Expected goals
1.58Numancia xG
0.82Guadalajara xG
43%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Numancia 1.6 – 0.8 Guadalajara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Numancia to win✓
58%
1.73
1.73
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
–
Draw no bet
Numancia (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Guadalajara +1 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Numancia to score first✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Numancia / FT Numancia✗
34%
2.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
6.96
–
Recent results
Numancia – last 6
DWWWLL
19 Sep
@ SS Reyes
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs A Madrid III
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Atlético Paso
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Zaragoza
2–1
W
17 May
@ Poblense
1–2
L
10 May
vs Poblense
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Guadalajara – last 6
WLLWLD
13 Sep
vs RSD Alcalá
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Salamanca UDS
2–3
L
18 Aug
@ Marchamalo
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Racing Ferrol
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Osasuna II
3–4
L
22 Mar
vs CF Talavera
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Numancia and Guadalajara.
What is the prediction for Numancia vs Guadalajara?
Our pick is Numancia to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Numancia vs Guadalajara?
On our numbers Numancia have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Guadalajara 22%.
How many goals will there be in Numancia vs Guadalajara?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Numancia vs Guadalajara?
Our predicted score is Numancia 1–0 Guadalajara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Numancia vs Guadalajara?
Numancia vs Guadalajara (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
