Value bet: Numancia to win @ 2.40 – our chance 47% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNumancia to win ✗47% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.23
Getafe II vs Numancia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Getafe II welcome Numancia for a Segunda División RFEF Group 5 fixture on Sunday 4 October (11:00 WAT). In the table, Getafe II are 16th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 10 matches; Numancia are 1st (leading the league) with 19.
Current form
Getafe II, last 5: LDLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Real Ávila, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Numancia, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Guadalajara, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Numancia, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Getafe II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Getafe II 0.7 xG, Numancia 1.0 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 78%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Getafe II 28%, draw 25%, Numancia 47%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Numancia to win @2.40 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (51%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: Getafe II 0–0 Numancia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Getafe II28%fair 3.53 · @3.00
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @2.75
Numancia47%fair 2.15 · @2.40
1.63Expected goals
0.65Getafe II xG
0.98Numancia xG
49%Both score
22%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–020%
0–119%
1–013%
1–113%
0–29%
1–26%
From our goals model: Getafe II 0.7 – 1.0 Numancia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Numancia to win✗
47%
2.15
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.70
Draw no bet
Numancia (draw no bet)
62%
1.61
–
Asian handicap
Getafe II +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Numancia to score first✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
27%
3.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.23
–
Recent results
Getafe II – last 6
LDLDLD
27 Sep
@ Real Ávila
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs CF Talavera
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Salamanca UDS
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Conquense
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Torrejón
0–2
L
27 Aug
@ Unión Adarve
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Numancia – last 6
WDWWWL
27 Sep
vs Guadalajara
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ SS Reyes
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs A Madrid III
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Atlético Paso
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Zaragoza
2–1
W
17 May
@ Poblense
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Getafe II and Numancia.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Getafe II vs Numancia?
On our numbers Getafe II have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Numancia 47%.
How many goals will there be in Getafe II vs Numancia?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 22% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Getafe II vs Numancia?
Our predicted score is Getafe II 0–0 Numancia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Getafe II vs Numancia?
Getafe II vs Numancia (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
