Real Ávila 31%Draw 23%Numancia 46%Expected goals 0.90 – 1.18
62%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Numancia to win @ 2.35 – our chance 46% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNumancia to win ✗46% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · fair 1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.76
Real Ávila vs Numancia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Numancia travel to face Real Ávila on Sunday 11 October in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Real Ávila are 17th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 10 matches; Numancia are 1st (leading the league) with 19. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Real Ávila, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to SS Reyes, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Numancia, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Getafe II, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Numancia, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Real Ávila.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Real Ávila 0.9 xG, Numancia 1.2 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Real Ávila 31%, draw 23%, Numancia 46%.
Price worth noting: Numancia to win @2.35 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 46%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (62%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Real Ávila 0–1 Numancia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Real Ávila31%fair 3.22 · @2.75
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Numancia46%fair 2.19 · @2.35
2.08Expected goals
0.90Real Ávila xG
1.18Numancia xG
41%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
1–113%
0–013%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Real Ávila 0.9 – 1.2 Numancia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Numancia to win✗
46%
2.19
2.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
–
Draw no bet
Numancia (draw no bet)
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Real Ávila +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Numancia to score first
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Numancia / FT Numancia✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.76
–
Recent results
Real Ávila – last 6
LWWLLW
4 Oct
@ SS Reyes
0–3
L
27 Sep
vs Getafe II
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Calvo Sotelo
2–1
W
13 Sep
@ Navalcarnero
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ A Madrid III
1–2
L
12 Aug
@ Atlético Tordesillas
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Numancia – last 6
DWDWWW
4 Oct
@ Getafe II
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Guadalajara
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ SS Reyes
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs A Madrid III
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Atlético Paso
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Zaragoza
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Ávila and Numancia.
What is the prediction for Real Ávila vs Numancia?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Real Ávila vs Numancia?
On our numbers Real Ávila have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Numancia 46%.
How many goals will there be in Real Ávila vs Numancia?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Ávila vs Numancia?
Our predicted score is Real Ávila 0–1 Numancia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Real Ávila vs Numancia?
Real Ávila vs Numancia (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
