Value bet: Bastia to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAubagne to win ✗39% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.26
Aubagne vs Bastia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 14 August the National 1 brings Aubagne against Bastia at Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, Aubagne are 17th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 12 matches; Bastia are 13th (lower half) with 15.
Current form
Aubagne, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Thionville Lusitanos, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Bastia, last 5: LLDDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Le Puy Foot, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aubagne 1.3 xG, Bastia 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aubagne 39%, draw 24%, Bastia 37%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Bastia to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aubagne 1–1 Bastia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aubagne39%fair 2.54 · @2.35
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.00
Bastia37%fair 2.73 · @2.90
2.47Expected goals
1.27Aubagne xG
1.21Bastia xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Aubagne 1.3 – 1.2 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aubagne to win✗
39%
2.54
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.80
Draw no bet
Aubagne (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Bastia +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Aubagne to score first✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aubagne / FT Aubagne✗
22%
4.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.26
–
Recent results
Aubagne – last 6
LLLLLW
7 Aug
vs Thionville Lusitanos
0–3
L
11 Jul
@ Montpellier
2–3
L
1 May
vs Stade Briochin
1–2
L
24 Apr
@ Rouen
1–3
L
17 Apr
vs Orleans
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Le Puy Foot
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 6
LLDDDL
7 Aug
vs Le Puy Foot
0–2
L
10 Jul
@ Rodez
3–5
L
24 Apr
@ Clermont Foot
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Amiens
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Rodez
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Boulogne
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aubagne and Bastia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Aubagne vs Bastia?
On our numbers Aubagne have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bastia 37%.
How many goals will there be in Aubagne vs Bastia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aubagne vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is Aubagne 1–1 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Aubagne vs Bastia?
Aubagne vs Bastia (National 1) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
