Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultThionville Lusitanos to win ✓58% · @1.85
Double chanceThionville Lusitanos or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Thionville Lusitanos welcome Caen to Stadium Plaine for a National 1 fixture on Friday 14 August (18:00 WAT). In the table, Thionville Lusitanos are 11th, lower half, on 16 points after 12 matches; Caen are 3rd (among the top four) with 22.
Current form
Thionville Lusitanos, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Aubagne, away. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Caen, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Valenciennes, at home. The attack is flying at 3.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Thionville Lusitanos 2.0 xG, Caen 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 53% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Thionville Lusitanos 58%, draw 25%, Caen 16%.
Lower-risk option: Thionville Lusitanos or draw (84%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Thionville Lusitanos 2–1 Caen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Thionville Lusitanos58%fair 1.72 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.35
Caen16%fair 6.12 · @3.75
3.04Expected goals
2.02Thionville Lusitanos xG
1.02Caen xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–110%
2–010%
1–010%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Thionville Lusitanos 2.0 – 1.0 Caen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Thionville Lusitanos to win✓
58%
1.72
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Thionville Lusitanos or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Thionville Lusitanos (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Thionville Lusitanos -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
First team to score
Thionville Lusitanos to score first
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Thionville Lusitanos ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Thionville Lusitanos / FT Thionville Lusitanos✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.05
–
Recent results
Thionville Lusitanos – last 5
WDWDW
7 Aug
@ Aubagne
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs Nancy
2–2
D
11 Jul
@ Progres Niederkorn
5–0
W
29 Mar
vs Beauvais
1–1
D
25 Mar
@ Blois
3–0
W
2.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Caen – last 6
WDWWLW
7 Aug
vs Valenciennes
4–0
W
31 Jul
vs Dieppe
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Al Wakrah
4–1
W
18 Jul
vs Laval
4–2
W
15 Jul
vs Gobelins
3–4
L
9 Jul
@ Rennes
2–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Thionville Lusitanos and Caen.
What is the prediction for Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen?
On our numbers Thionville Lusitanos have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Caen 16%.
How many goals will there be in Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen?
Our predicted score is Thionville Lusitanos 2–1 Caen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen?
Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen (National 1) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadium Plaine.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
