Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
2
Value bet: Thionville Lusitanos to win @ 3.20 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultConcarneau to win ✗40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.11
Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Thionville Lusitanos travel to face Concarneau on Saturday 5 September in the National 1, with Stade Guy Piriou the venue – the ball rolls at 13:45 WAT. In the table, Concarneau are 6th, upper half, on 20 points after 12 matches; Thionville Lusitanos are 11th (lower half) with 16.
Current form
Concarneau, last 5: DWDLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Valenciennes, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Thionville Lusitanos, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Gobelins, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Thionville Lusitanos, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for Concarneau.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Concarneau 1.3 xG, Thionville Lusitanos 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Concarneau 40%, draw 23%, Thionville Lusitanos 37%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Thionville Lusitanos to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Concarneau 1–1 Thionville Lusitanos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Concarneau40%fair 2.47 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.10
Thionville Lusitanos37%fair 2.72 · @3.20
2.50Expected goals
1.29Concarneau xG
1.21Thionville Lusitanos xG
59%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Concarneau 1.3 – 1.2 Thionville Lusitanos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Concarneau to win✗
40%
2.47
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.73
Draw no bet
Concarneau (draw no bet)
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Thionville Lusitanos +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Concarneau to score first✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Concarneau / FT Concarneau✗
22%
4.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.11
–
Recent results
Concarneau – last 6
DWDLWW
29 Aug
@ Valenciennes
0–0
D
20 Aug
vs Villefranche
2–0
W
14 Aug
@ Quevilly
1–1
D
7 Aug
vs Orleans
0–2
L
31 Jul
vs Pontivy GSI
5–1
W
25 Jul
@ Laval
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Thionville Lusitanos – last 6
DWWWDW
29 Aug
vs Gobelins
1–1
D
20 Aug
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–0
W
14 Aug
vs Caen
4–3
W
7 Aug
@ Aubagne
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs Nancy
2–2
D
11 Jul
@ Progres Niederkorn
5–0
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Concarneau and Thionville Lusitanos.
What is the prediction for Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos?
On our numbers Concarneau have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Thionville Lusitanos 37%.
How many goals will there be in Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Our predicted score is Concarneau 1–1 Thionville Lusitanos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Guy Piriou.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
