Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
1
Value bet: FC Schalke 04 to win @ 3.00 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFSV Mainz 05 to win ✓42% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗67% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.65
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FC Schalke 04 welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Veltins Arena for a Bundesliga fixture on Saturday 17 October (14:30 WAT). In the table, FC Schalke 04 are 17th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 9 matches; FSV Mainz 05 are 12th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
FC Schalke 04, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to SC Freiburg, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
FSV Mainz 05, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Schalke 04 1.6 xG, FSV Mainz 05 1.7 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 64% and GG at 67%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Schalke 04 37%, draw 22%, FSV Mainz 05 42%.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: FC Schalke 04 to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (67%, odds 1.53 – longer than our fair 1.50, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Schalke 04 1–1 FSV Mainz 05. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Schalke 0437%fair 2.74 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.40
FSV Mainz 0542%fair 2.39 · @2.25
3.30Expected goals
1.59FC Schalke 04 xG
1.71FSV Mainz 05 xG
67%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: FC Schalke 04 1.6 – 1.7 FSV Mainz 05 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FSV Mainz 05 to win✓
42%
2.39
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
67%
1.50
1.53
Draw no bet
FSV Mainz 05 (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
FC Schalke 04 +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
First team to score
FSV Mainz 05 to score first✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FSV Mainz 05 / FT FSV Mainz 05✓
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.65
–
Recent results
FC Schalke 04 – last 6
LWDWDL
11 Oct
@ SC Freiburg
1–2
L
3 Oct
@ Austria Lustenau
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs SV Elversberg
0–0
D
11 Sep
@ Union Berlin
3–1
W
5 Sep
vs Bayern München
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ FC Augsburg
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 – last 6
LWWLWD
10 Oct
vs Bayer Leverkusen
3–4
L
3 Oct
@ Waldhof Mannheim
3–0
W
19 Sep
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
4–3
W
12 Sep
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
1–3
L
6 Sep
@ Hamburger SV
5–0
W
29 Aug
vs SC Paderborn 07
0–0
D
2.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05.
What is the prediction for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
On our numbers FC Schalke 04 have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FSV Mainz 05 42%.
How many goals will there be in FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our predicted score is FC Schalke 04 1–1 FSV Mainz 05, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Veltins Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
