Value bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultBayer Leverkusen to win68% · @1.25
Double chanceBayer Leverkusen or draw87% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals85% · @1.10
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.20
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
SC Paderborn 07 travel to face Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday 21 November in the Bundesliga, with BayArena the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Bayer Leverkusen are 5th, upper half, on 16 points after 9 matches; SC Paderborn 07 are 13th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Bayer Leverkusen, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over 1. FC Köln, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07, last 5: DDLWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Bayer Leverkusen, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for SC Paderborn 07.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bayer Leverkusen 2.2 xG, SC Paderborn 07 1.0 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 67% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bayer Leverkusen 68%, draw 20%, SC Paderborn 07 13%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Under 3.5 goals @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Bayer Leverkusen to win (68%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC Paderborn 07. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bayer Leverkusen68%fair 1.48 · @1.25
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @6.00
SC Paderborn 0713%fair 7.89 · @10.00
3.20Expected goals
2.25Bayer Leverkusen xG
0.95SC Paderborn 07 xG
58%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Bayer Leverkusen 2.2 – 1.0 SC Paderborn 07 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Paderborn 07
Attack vs Bundesliga average
+18%
-35%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-19%
Our expected goals here
1.96
0.92
Our own ratings from every Bundesliga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayer Leverkusen to win
68%
1.48
1.25
Double chance
Bayer Leverkusen or draw
87%
1.15
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.72
1.67
Draw no bet
Bayer Leverkusen (draw no bet)
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
85%
1.18
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
54%
1.86
2.00 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.44
First team to score
Bayer Leverkusen to score first
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayer Leverkusen / FT Bayer Leverkusen
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.20
–
Recent results
Bayer Leverkusen – last 6
WLLWLW
8 Nov
@ 1. FC Köln
2–1
W
5 Nov
vs Marseille
0–1
L
31 Oct
vs VfB Stuttgart
2–4
L
28 Oct
vs 1. FC Nürnberg
5–2
W
25 Oct
@ 1899 Hoffenheim
0–3
L
22 Oct
@ OFI
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
SC Paderborn 07 – last 6
DDLWDL
7 Nov
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
2–2
D
31 Oct
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
0–0
D
28 Oct
vs VfB Stuttgart
0–1
L
24 Oct
vs Hamburger SV
1–0
W
17 Oct
@ Werder Bremen
2–2
D
10 Oct
vs VfB Stuttgart
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn 07.
What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our pick is Bayer Leverkusen to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
On our numbers Bayer Leverkusen have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and SC Paderborn 07 13%.
How many goals will there be in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our predicted score is Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC Paderborn 07, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at BayArena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
