Estoril vs Casa Pia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 20 September the Primeira Liga brings Estoril against Casa Pia at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, Estoril are 18th, in the drop zone, on 2 points after 10 matches; Casa Pia are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8.
Current form
Estoril, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to SC Braga, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Casa Pia, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to FC Porto, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estoril 1.4 xG, Casa Pia 0.7 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estoril 58%, draw 20%, Casa Pia 22%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Estoril to win (58%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estoril 1–0 Casa Pia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estoril58%fair 1.73 · @1.75
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.50
Casa Pia22%fair 4.53 · @4.40
2.17Expected goals
1.45Estoril xG
0.72Casa Pia xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
1–112%
2–012%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Estoril 1.4 – 0.7 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estoril to win✗
58%
1.73
1.75
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.80
Draw no bet
Estoril (draw no bet)✗
72%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Casa Pia +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Estoril to score first
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estoril / FT Estoril✗
33%
3.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.57
–
Recent results
Estoril – last 6
LDLLLD
14 Sep
@ SC Braga
0–1
L
7 Sep
vs Arouca
0–0
D
31 Aug
@ Benfica
1–2
L
22 Aug
vs Rio Ave
0–2
L
16 Aug
@ Nacional
0–2
L
7 Aug
vs Famalicao
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Casa Pia – last 6
LDLLLL
12 Sep
vs FC Porto
1–4
L
6 Sep
@ Vitória SC
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Moreirense
0–1
L
24 Aug
@ GIL Vicente
0–2
L
17 Aug
vs Benfica
0–7
L
8 Aug
@ Maritimo
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estoril and Casa Pia.
Our pick is Estoril to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Estoril vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Estoril have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Casa Pia 22%.
How many goals will there be in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Estoril 1–0 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Estoril vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
