Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVitória SC to win ✗65% · @1.50
Double chanceVitória SC or draw ✓89% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.77
Vitória SC vs Moreirense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 20 September the Primeira Liga brings Vitória SC against Moreirense at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Vitória SC are 14th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Moreirense are 9th (upper half) with 14.
Current form
Vitória SC, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Academico Viseu, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Moreirense, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Maritimo, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Moreirense, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Vitória SC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vitória SC 1.9 xG, Moreirense 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vitória SC 65%, draw 23%, Moreirense 11%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Vitória SC to win (65%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vitória SC 1–0 Moreirense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vitória SC65%fair 1.53 · @1.50
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.90
Moreirense11%fair 8.86 · @6.00
2.58Expected goals
1.90Vitória SC xG
0.68Moreirense xG
55%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Vitória SC 1.9 – 0.7 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vitória SC to win✗
65%
1.53
1.50
Double chance
Vitória SC or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Vitória SC (draw no bet)
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Vitória SC -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Vitória SC to score first
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Vitória SC ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vitória SC / FT Vitória SC✗
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.77
–
Recent results
Vitória SC – last 6
LDLWLL
12 Sep
@ Academico Viseu
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Casa Pia
0–0
D
31 Aug
@ SC Braga
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Nacional
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Sporting CP
2–3
L
8 Aug
vs Arouca
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Moreirense – last 6
WLLWLD
14 Sep
vs Maritimo
3–1
W
9 Sep
vs Benfica
0–4
L
4 Sep
@ FC Porto
1–2
L
30 Aug
@ Casa Pia
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ Arouca
0–4
L
9 Aug
vs SC Braga
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vitória SC and Moreirense.
What is the prediction for Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
Our pick is Vitória SC to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
On our numbers Vitória SC have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Moreirense 11%.
How many goals will there be in Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
Our predicted score is Vitória SC 1–0 Moreirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
Vitória SC vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
