FC Porto 36%Draw 23%Benfica 41%Expected goals 1.69 – 1.81
66%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Picks by market
ResultBenfica to win ✗41% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.67
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.94
FC Porto vs Benfica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 20 September the Primeira Liga brings FC Porto against Benfica at Estádio do Dragão. Kick-off: 20:30 WAT. In the table, FC Porto are 1st, leading the league, on 33 points after 11 matches; Benfica are 2nd (among the top four) with 28.
Current form
FC Porto, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Casa Pia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Benfica, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over AC Milan, away. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Benfica, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.5 for FC Porto.
Head to head
When they last met (8 Mar 2026) it ended Benfica 2–2 FC Porto.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Porto 1.7 xG, Benfica 1.8 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 66% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Porto 36%, draw 23%, Benfica 41%.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (66%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.52, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Porto 1–1 Benfica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Porto36%fair 2.77 · @2.62
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.25
Benfica41%fair 2.42 · @2.50
3.50Expected goals
1.69FC Porto xG
1.81Benfica xG
66%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–15%
1–05%
From our goals model: FC Porto 1.7 – 1.8 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win FC Porto vs Benfica?
On our numbers FC Porto have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Benfica 41%.
How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs Benfica?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Benfica?
Our predicted score is FC Porto 1–1 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is FC Porto vs Benfica?
FC Porto vs Benfica (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Dragão.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
