Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultPenybont to win67% · @1.25
Double chancePenybont or draw84% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals70% · fair 1.43
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.66
Holywell vs Penybont: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penybont travel to face Holywell on Friday 23 October in the Premier League, with Bartons North Wales Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Holywell are 16th, in the drop zone, on 2 points after 15 matches; Penybont are 3rd (among the top four) with 36. There are 34 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Holywell, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Llay Miners Welfare, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 3.0 conceded per game.
Penybont, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Afan Lido, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Penybont, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.3 for Holywell.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Holywell 1.1 xG, Penybont 2.5 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 70% and GG at 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Holywell 16%, draw 17%, Penybont 67%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 59%.
Betarazi verdict
We are going with Penybont to win (67%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Holywell 1–2 Penybont. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Holywell16%fair 6.37 · @10.00
Draw17%fair 5.91 · @5.50
Penybont67%fair 1.48 · @1.25
3.62Expected goals
1.13Holywell xG
2.49Penybont xG
59%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
0–28%
1–38%
1–18%
0–37%
0–17%
From our goals model: Holywell 1.1 – 2.5 Penybont expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penybont to win
67%
1.48
1.25
Double chance
Penybont or draw
84%
1.19
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Penybont (draw no bet)
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Penybont -0.5 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
70%
1.42
–
First team to score
Penybont to score first
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Penybont ahead at half-time
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penybont / FT Penybont
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
10.66
–
Recent results
Holywell – last 6
DLLDLL
17 Oct
@ Llay Miners Welfare
3–3
D
9 Oct
vs The New Saints
1–6
L
3 Oct
@ Ammanford AFC
1–2
L
26 Sep
vs Briton Ferry
1–1
D
18 Sep
@ Haverfordwest County AFC
0–1
L
15 Sep
vs Colwyn Bay
0–5
L
1.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Penybont – last 6
WWLWWW
18 Oct
@ Afan Lido
3–2
W
9 Oct
vs Barry Town
3–1
W
3 Oct
@ GAP Connah S Quay FC
0–1
L
26 Sep
vs Airbus UK
2–1
W
18 Sep
@ Ammanford AFC
5–1
W
15 Sep
vs Briton Ferry
3–2
W
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Holywell and Penybont.
Our pick is Penybont to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Holywell vs Penybont?
On our numbers Holywell have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Penybont 67%.
How many goals will there be in Holywell vs Penybont?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Holywell vs Penybont?
Our predicted score is Holywell 1–2 Penybont, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Holywell vs Penybont?
Holywell vs Penybont (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Bartons North Wales Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
