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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Newtown AFC v Denbigh Town: numbers & prediction

FAW Championship · Wales · Latham Park

Newtown AFC

WWDWW
1–0
FT

Denbigh Town

LDLLL
Newtown AFC 70%Draw 19%Denbigh Town 11% Expected goals 2.61 – 1.03
70%
Betarazi pick

Newtown AFC to win

Strong pick · fair odds 1.43 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.36Odds

Picks by market

ResultNewtown AFC to win ✓70% · @1.36
Double chanceNewtown AFC or draw ✓89% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗70% · fair 1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.86

Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Denbigh Town travel to face Newtown AFC on Saturday 5 September in the FAW Championship, with Latham Park the venue – the ball rolls at 14:30 WAT. In the table, Newtown AFC are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 13 matches; Denbigh Town are 12th (lower half) with 14. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Newtown AFC, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Bala Town, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Denbigh Town, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Rhyl, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Newtown AFC, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Denbigh Town.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Newtown AFC 2.6 xG, Denbigh Town 1.0 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Newtown AFC 70%, draw 19%, Denbigh Town 11%.
  • GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.44.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Newtown AFC to win (70%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newtown AFC 2–1 Denbigh Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Newtown AFC70%fair 1.43 · @1.36
Draw19%fair 5.33 · @4.50
Denbigh Town11%fair 8.88 · @5.80
3.64Expected goals
2.61Newtown AFC xG
1.03Denbigh Town xG
62%Both score
70%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–17%
1–07%

From our goals model: Newtown AFC 2.6 – 1.0 Denbigh Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNewtown AFC to win ✓70%1.431.36
Double chanceNewtown AFC or draw ✓89%1.131.11
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗62%1.601.44
Draw no betNewtown AFC (draw no bet) ✓86%1.16–
Asian handicapNewtown AFC -1 (Asian handicap)64%1.57–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗88%1.14–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗70%1.42–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓51%1.97–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓70%1.43–
First team to scoreNewtown AFC to score first ✓70%1.43–
Half-time resultNewtown AFC ahead at half-time ✗53%1.87–
Half-time / full-timeHT Newtown AFC / FT Newtown AFC ✗48%2.06–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.86–

Recent results

Newtown AFC – last 6

WWDWWL
31 Aug@ Bala Town1–0W
28 Augvs Llanuwchllyn4–0W
15 Augvs Guilsfield1–1D
8 Augvs Penrhyncoch5–0W
2 Aug@ Gresford Athletic3–0W
8 Apr@ Holywell0–6L
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Denbigh Town – last 6

LDLLLW
31 Augvs Rhyl1–3L
28 Aug@ Penrhyncoch2–2D
21 Augvs Porthmadog2–3L
14 Aug@ Ruthin Town1–2L
8 Augvs Bangor City 1876 FC1–2L
1 Aug@ Buckley Town4–2W
1.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Newtown AFC and Denbigh Town.

Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town head-to-head page →

FAW Championship table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Brickfield Rangers141112+1934
2Newtown AFC13931+1930
3Porthmadog14833+727
4Mold Alexandra13742+1525
5Bala Town14734+324
6Caersws13652+1023
7Bangor City 1876 FC13643+1522
8Guilsfield14464+118
9Buckley Town14437015
10Holyhead Hotspur13436-315
11Llanuwchllyn14437-915
12Denbigh Town13427-214
13Rhyl14275-313
14Ruthin Town13337-1212
15Gresford Athletic12219-267
16Penrhyncoch130112-341

More FAW Championship predictions

League hub
FT Bangor City 1876 FC2 Rhyl2 158%1.62X21%4.00221%4.00 2.2–1.2xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✓
FT Brickfield Rangers2 Guilsfield0 160%1.91X15%3.75225%3.10 2.1–1.2xG 1Brickfield Rangers to win 60%@1.91 ✓
FT Buckley Town5 Penrhyncoch0 164%1.73X16%3.90221%3.40 2.2–1.1xG 1Buckley Town to win 64%@1.73 ✓
FT Porthmadog1 Bala Town2 121%3.00X24%3.40254%1.95 1.2–1.9xG X2Bala Town or draw 79%@1.33 ✓
Postponed Ynyshir Albions Pontypridd Town 134%2.88X20%3.75246%2.00 1.4–1.7xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 59%@1.65

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?

Our pick is Newtown AFC to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.

Who will win Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?

On our numbers Newtown AFC have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Denbigh Town 11%.

How many goals will there be in Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?

We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?

Our predicted score is Newtown AFC 2–1 Denbigh Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.

When is Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?

Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Latham Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.