Caerau (Ely) 68%Draw 20%Llantwit Major 12%Expected goals 2.56 – 1.07
68%
Betarazi pick
Caerau (Ely) to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultCaerau (Ely) to win ✗68% · @1.25
Double chanceCaerau (Ely) or draw ✗88% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗70% · fair 1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.76
Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Friday 23 October: Caerau (Ely) v Llantwit Major in the FAW Championship. In the table, Caerau (Ely) are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 13 matches; Llantwit Major are 15th (in the drop zone) with 12.
Current form
Caerau (Ely), last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 6–0 win over llanelli AFC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 3.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Llantwit Major, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Trefelin, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Caerau (Ely), collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.3 for Llantwit Major.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Caerau (Ely) 2.6 xG, Llantwit Major 1.1 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Caerau (Ely) 68%, draw 20%, Llantwit Major 12%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Caerau (Ely) to win (68%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Caerau (Ely) 2–1 Llantwit Major. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Caerau (Ely)68%fair 1.47 · @1.25
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @5.00
Llantwit Major12%fair 8.41 · @8.50
3.63Expected goals
2.56Caerau (Ely) xG
1.07Llantwit Major xG
61%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–07%
1–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Caerau (Ely) 2.6 – 1.1 Llantwit Major expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win✗
68%
1.47
1.25
Double chance
Caerau (Ely) or draw✗
88%
1.13
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.65
Draw no bet
Caerau (Ely) (draw no bet)✗
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Caerau (Ely) -1 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
First team to score
Caerau (Ely) to score first✗
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely)✗
47%
2.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.76
–
Recent results
Caerau (Ely) – last 6
WWWWWW
16 Oct
vs llanelli AFC
6–0
W
10 Oct
@ Aberystwyth Town
1–0
W
2 Oct
vs Afan Lido
2–0
W
26 Sep
@ Cardiff Draconians
3–1
W
11 Sep
vs llanelli AFC
3–0
W
31 Aug
vs Treowen Stars
3–2
W
3.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Llantwit Major – last 6
LDLWWD
17 Oct
@ Trefelin
1–4
L
10 Oct
vs Pontardawe Town
1–1
D
6 Oct
@ Pontypridd Town
1–4
L
2 Oct
@ Carmarthen Town
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs llanelli AFC
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Treowen Stars
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caerau (Ely) and Llantwit Major.
What is the prediction for Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
Our pick is Caerau (Ely) to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
On our numbers Caerau (Ely) have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Llantwit Major 12%.
How many goals will there be in Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
Our predicted score is Caerau (Ely) 2–1 Llantwit Major, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
