Double chanceLeones Negros UDG or draw ✗91% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.68
Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 18 October the Liga De Expansión MX brings Leones Negros UDG against Alebrijes de Oaxaca at Estadio Jalisco. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Leones Negros UDG are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 15 matches; Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th (lower half) with 22.
Current form
Leones Negros UDG, last 5: DWWLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Venados FC, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Correcaminos Uat, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Leones Negros UDG, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Head to head
When they last met (28 Mar 2026) it ended Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Leones Negros UDG.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones Negros UDG 2.4 xG, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0.8 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 63% and GG at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones Negros UDG 72%, draw 19%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 9%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Leones Negros UDG to win (72%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones Negros UDG 2–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones Negros UDG72%fair 1.40 · @1.30
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @4.80
Alebrijes de Oaxaca9%fair 11.06 · @7.00
3.25Expected goals
2.44Leones Negros UDG xG
0.81Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
60%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–09%
2–19%
3–09%
1–18%
3–18%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 2.4 – 0.8 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Leones Negros UDG to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 9%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 2–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
