Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
Picks by market
ResultPiratas to win ✓72% · @1.15
Double chancePiratas or draw ✓87% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.49
Piratas vs Tepatitlán: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Piratas welcome Tepatitlán for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 18 October (02:00 WAT). In the table, Piratas are 4th, among the top four, on 25 points after 15 matches; Tepatitlán are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Piratas, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Tlaxcala, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Tepatitlán, last 5: LDWLL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Tapatío, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Piratas, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Tepatitlán.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Piratas 2.3 xG, Tepatitlán 0.8 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Piratas 72%, draw 15%, Tepatitlán 13%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.71, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Piratas 2–1 Tepatitlán. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Piratas72%fair 1.38 · @1.15
Draw15%fair 6.56 · @7.00
Tepatitlán13%fair 7.98 · @13.00
3.17Expected goals
2.34Piratas xG
0.83Tepatitlán xG
58%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–010%
2–110%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Piratas 2.3 – 0.8 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Piratas to win✓
72%
1.38
1.15
Double chance
Piratas or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Piratas (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Piratas -1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
First team to score
Piratas to score first✓
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Piratas ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Piratas / FT Piratas✓
48%
2.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.49
–
Recent results
Piratas – last 6
LWLWDW
10 Oct
@ Tlaxcala
2–4
L
4 Oct
vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4–0
W
25 Sep
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–3
L
19 Sep
vs Venados FC
2–1
W
11 Sep
@ Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Correcaminos Uat
4–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Tepatitlán – last 6
LDWLLL
14 Oct
@ Tapatío
1–4
L
10 Oct
vs Monarcas
1–1
D
3 Oct
vs CDS Tampico Madero
3–1
W
19 Sep
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Venados FC
0–5
L
4 Sep
vs Dorados
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Piratas and Tepatitlán.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Piratas have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Tepatitlán 13%.
How many goals will there be in Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Piratas 2–1 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
Piratas vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
